Rubrik enters its June 4 earnings report with options traders making the most aggressively bullish call-side bet in the stock's recorded history.
The put/call ratio collapsed to 0.26 on June 3 — more than three standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.45, and the lowest reading in the past year. That is not a hedge; it is a directional bet on upside. This follows a month in which the stock added 44% to close at $79.46, with a 21% surge in the past week alone. Peers moved similarly — IOT rose 20%, ORCL gained 27%, and NOW added 28% on the week — so Rubrik's rally has sector tailwinds behind it. Yesterday's 3.5% pullback, on a day when CRM fell 4.2% and PATH dropped 7%, looks like broad software weakness rather than RBRK-specific concern.
Short interest complicates that bullish picture. Bears have added aggressively into the rally — short interest jumped 24% in a single week to 11.4% of the free float, a meaningful and rising position. Yet the lending market offers no evidence of squeeze pressure: availability is a comfortable 660%, meaning there are roughly six shares available to borrow for every one already shorted, and cost to borrow remains negligible at 0.47%. Shorts are scaling up their bets but doing so cheaply and with no supply constraint. The ORTEX short score of 53.7 has drifted higher since late May but sits nowhere near extreme territory.
The analyst community has moved firmly in one direction ahead of the print. Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform in May, BTIG lifted its target from $64 to $76, and Wolfe Research and Jefferies both initiated with bullish ratings over the past five weeks. The consensus mean target of $86.70 implies around 9% further upside from current levels. Bulls point to AI-driven data security growth, subscription model visibility, and strong EPS momentum — the stock ranks in the 94th percentile on EPS surprise and the 98th percentile on 90-day EPS momentum. Bears counter that the stock is priced for perfection: the EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed but still runs above 217x, the company carries negative book value, and revenue is heavily concentrated in the Americas. Two prior earnings prints — in March 2026 — each produced single-day drops of 4% to 7% and five-day losses of 9% to 11%.
Tonight's report will test whether Rubrik's Q1 results and forward guidance can justify a stock that has run 44% in a month and now carries the most one-sided call-side positioning it has seen all year.
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