THOR Industries reports again on June 5 — its second earnings event in quick succession — with shorts still sitting at elevated levels but the options market now clearly less defensive than it was heading into the June 3 print.
Short interest remains the dominant positioning story. At 8.1% of the free float, the short base is still meaningful. It built nearly 11% across the week before the June 3 report, partially unwound on the day, and has since stabilised. That pattern — rebuild, partial unwind, hold — suggests bears haven't capitulated. The ORTEX short score of 63, running in a tight 60–64 band for two weeks, reinforces the reading: cautious and steady, not panicked in either direction. Borrow costs are low at 0.54% annualised, and availability is wide at 184% of short interest, meaning there is no structural constraint on new short positioning if the print disappoints.
Options have rotated sharply since the pre-earnings defensive lean. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.88 — well below its 20-day average of 1.11 — a z-score of around -0.74 that marks a clear shift toward call-side activity. That's consistent with the post-June-3 tone described in the prior note: options traders used the first print as a reset, and they are now positioned more constructively heading into the second event.
The analyst picture frames the debate cleanly. Citigroup's James Hardiman cut his target to $82 last week — barely above the current $79.76 close — while BMO Capital holds the most optimistic view at $120 with an Outperform. The consensus mean of $97.91 implies roughly 23% upside, but the direction of travel across the coverage has been persistently downward. Bears cite economic uncertainty, European market weakness, and a still-nascent aftermarket business. Bulls point to recurring owner spending, the Airxcel diversification play, and a valuation that doesn't look stretched — 16.5x trailing earnings and an EV/EBITDA of 6.9x. The EPS surprise factor score ranks in the 95th percentile, which is the one data point squarely in the bulls' favour: this company has a strong recent track record of beating estimates. Past reactions have been binary: the March 20 print produced a 5.4% one-day gain; the March 3 print saw a 5% drop that extended to -11.5% over five days.
The June 5 print is therefore less about whether the RV cycle is recovering and more about whether management's commentary on order trends, European exposure, and aftermarket momentum can justify a stock that has already partially re-rated off its lows — with a still-elevated short base waiting to see the evidence.
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