ArcBest Corporation heads into its May 1 earnings release with options positioning at its most bullish extreme in at least a year.
The options signal is the standout here. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.11 — a reading 2.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.34, and the lowest in the past 52 weeks. That is not cautious hedging; it reflects an unusually heavy lean toward call options relative to puts heading into the print. The shift is sharp and recent: the PCR ran near 0.39-0.42 through most of March and early April before breaking lower over the past two weeks as the stock climbed. That rally has been substantial — ARCB is up 37% over the past month to $127.06, recovering hard from what was clearly a deeply depressed base. The borrow market does not suggest the short side is pressing the trade. Cost to borrow is a modest 0.45%, and availability remains well above zero, with only about 12.5% of available shares currently lent out against a 52-week peak of 18.3% — a loose lending environment that offers no friction to new shorts but also no squeeze catalyst.
The analyst community is moving in the same direction as the options market. Every analyst action on record today — across JP Morgan, UBS, TD Cowen, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Truist Securities, and Stifel — was a target price raise, all reported April 29. The magnitude of some upgrades is notable: Wells Fargo lifted its target from $85 to $130, Truist moved from $95 to $145, and Citigroup raised to $150. Yet several bellwether names — JP Morgan, UBS, and Goldman — kept neutral or hold ratings even while moving targets materially higher, suggesting the Street acknowledges the re-rating but is not yet fully convicted on further upside from current levels. The consensus mean target is $135.45, only about 7% above the current price — tight clearance for a stock that just ran 37% in a month. Momentum factor scores back the optimism: EPS momentum ranks in the 88th-90th percentile on both 30- and 90-day windows, and the forward EPS growth estimate ranks in the 73rd percentile.
Short interest adds a modest counterweight to the bullish tilt without dominating the story. At 5.5% of the free float, it is meaningful but not extreme, and it has been creeping higher — up roughly 7% over the past month to around 1.24 million shares. That steady build through a violent rally implies some traders are fading the move rather than covering into it. Days to cover run at five days on official data, which gives shorts reasonable but not comfortable exit room.
The May 1 print will therefore test whether ArcBest's fundamental delivery — revenue trends, yield per shipment, and margin trajectory — can validate a 37% price move that the options market has already priced as likely, while short sellers quietly accumulate a modest opposing bet.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open ARCB on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
