FMCC.G heads into its April 30 earnings release with short sellers having largely abandoned their positions — and a month of strong price action raising the stakes for the print.
The most striking development over the past several weeks is the scale of the short covering. Estimated short interest has collapsed by roughly 76% over the past month, falling from about 7,584 shares in early March to just 1,791 by early April. The retreat accelerated sharply through late March and early April, with short positions more than halving between March 24 and April 8. The ORTEX short score has tracked that unwinding closely, dropping from around 50 in late March to just 30 by April 8 — a level that places Freddie Mac squarely in the middle of the range rather than among the more pressured names. What drove the covering is the more interesting question: Freddie Mac's preferred shares have gained 18% over the past month against a backdrop of ongoing policy chatter around GSE privatisation, and short sellers appear to have concluded that fighting the tape here was costly.
The borrowing market tells a more nuanced story. Cost to borrow climbed steadily through the first quarter — rising from under 5% in late January to 9.65% by early April, a gain of more than 50% over the week and 36% over the month. Rising borrow costs alongside falling short interest is an unusual combination; it typically reflects tightening availability for a shrinking pool of remaining shorts rather than a surge in new demand. The most recent borrow-cost data is now almost four weeks old, so the current lending rate could have moved materially since, particularly given the price action. That data gap is worth flagging.
Institutional positioning gives the stock a distinctive character. Capital Research and Management holds around 64.8 million shares (about 2.0% of the company) as of December 2025, while Pershing Square Capital Management — Bill Ackman's firm, which has long held a thesis on GSE release from conservatorship — reported 63.6 million shares as of January 2025. The top six holders on record account for the entirety of institutional ownership as tracked here, with no active manager building or trimming in the most recent period. The concentration of interest in two well-known, thesis-driven holders means price moves can be driven more by headline policy developments than by broad market positioning.
Factor signals are largely unremarkable. The short score rank of 52 places Freddie Mac at the median. The DTC rank of 61 suggests days-to-cover is slightly elevated relative to peers. EPS momentum over 30 days ranks near the bottom of the universe at just 4, while the 12-month forward EPS year-on-year increase ranks a more constructive 81 — pointing to near-term estimate cuts even as the longer-horizon earnings trajectory appears stronger. That disconnect is worth monitoring as the Q1 numbers land.
The earnings event scheduled for April 30 is the immediate focus. The February 2026 print produced no meaningful day-one price reaction, though the stock drifted roughly 3.7% lower in the five sessions that followed. What to watch from today's release is any commentary on the pace and likelihood of conservatorship exit — the variable that underpins both the Pershing Square and Capital Research positions, and the one most likely to close the gap between the stock's recent 18% rally and the week's modest 2.7% pullback.
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