Methanex heads into its Q1 2026 earnings call on April 30 with a significant ownership story dominating the backdrop — and short sellers clearing out fast.
The most striking development heading into the print is the OCI Global divestment. The Dutch chemicals giant has been systematically offloading its Methanex stake over April, cutting its holding from roughly 9.9 million shares to 2.6 million — a reduction of more than 7.3 million shares — with the final block sold on April 21. Simultaneously, Sunil Jagwani, already a 10% shareholder, stepped in to buy approximately 67,700 shares worth over C$4 million on April 23 alone. The net 90-day insider buying across all insiders clocks in at roughly 336,000 shares, or approximately C$19.6 million in net value. That contra-directional flow — a strategic seller liquidating against a 10% shareholder adding aggressively — is the clearest signal of divergent views on where Methanex trades from here.
The lending market tells a more relaxed story. Short interest has dropped nearly 20% over the past week, with estimated short shares falling to around 1.58 million. At roughly 2.1% of free float (on the US listing basis), this is modest territory — not a heavily pressed stock. Availability in the borrow market is ample, and the ORTEX short score of 30.3 places Methanex well below any threshold of concern for squeeze dynamics. Cost to borrow has been volatile — tripling from under 0.6% in late March to around 1.7% now — but in absolute terms remains inexpensive. Availability has loosened considerably from the tight conditions seen in mid-March, when utilisation was running above 10% of the pool; it now stands near 3.5%, signalling that the borrow market is no longer under meaningful stress.
The stock has recovered sharply from a difficult April, gaining nearly 5% on Wednesday to close at C$86.65, trimming the one-month loss to roughly 4.3%. Peers followed a similar path on the day — LYB rose 2.5%, DOW added 4.1%, and CF Industries gained 3.7% — suggesting broad chemicals-sector relief rather than a Methanex-specific re-rating. Analyst data on file is too dated to cite with confidence, but valuation multiples give some useful context: the stock trades at roughly 10.5x trailing earnings and under 5x EV/EBITDA, both expanding modestly on the week, and a price-to-book ratio below 0.9x. The EPS surprise factor score of just 9 out of 100 flags a history of missing estimates, and with Q1 results already released on April 29 with the headline "well-positioned in current environment," Wednesday's call is less about the top-line print and more about how management frames methanol demand, the tariff environment, and whether the OCI overhang — now largely cleared — changes the capital-return calculus.
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