SJM heads into its June 9 earnings event having already survived one print this earnings cycle — and with short sellers now firmly in retreat, the debate has shifted squarely to whether the analyst community's persistent skepticism is justified.
Short sellers have been unwinding steadily since mid-May. Short interest has fallen more than 8% over the past month, dropping to 4.4% of the free float. The borrow market tells the same story: availability is extraordinarily loose at over 8,300% of short interest, meaning the lending pool is vastly larger than current demand. Cost to borrow is negligible at 0.37%. There is no residual squeeze pressure, and no sign that new short conviction is building ahead of June 9.
Options positioning is mildly elevated but not alarming. The put/call ratio is running at 0.38, slightly above its 20-day average of 0.35 but less than one standard deviation from the mean. That is a far cry from defensive territory. If anything, the options market is treating this event with relative calm — a notable contrast to the more charged setup ahead of the June 2 print.
The analyst picture is more complicated. Target cuts have been near-universal over the past six weeks — UBS trimmed to $121 just days ago while maintaining Buy, and JP Morgan similarly cut to $120 in mid-May while keeping Overweight. The mean target now sits at $115, implying roughly 14% upside from $101. Yet the direction of travel is clear: the Street is constructive on the name but consistently marking down what it thinks the stock is worth. Evercore ISI initiated at Outperform with a $117 target in May, providing a rare piece of fresh bullish conviction. Morgan Stanley and Barclays remain more cautious, both at Equal-Weight with targets near current levels.
The bull case rests on coffee pricing momentum — roughly 20% cumulative U.S. price increases that management has argued will drive 3.5%–5.5% comparable sales growth and a free cash flow step-up to $875 million in FY26. Bears focus on volume elasticity: higher coffee prices may simply push consumers toward private label, compressing volume and leaving the margin math worse than guided. The Sweet Baked Snacks segment adds another layer of pressure. The June 2 beat cleared the bar, but the EPS decline trajectory for FY26 means every quarter requires a fresh proof point that pricing is holding volume.
Positioning looks more relaxed than cautious — shorts are exiting, borrow is ample, and options are calm. The June 9 event tests whether the coffee pricing thesis can survive a second consecutive quarterly scrutiny, and whether the gap between a constructive but target-trimming analyst community and the stock's recovery to $101 is starting to close.
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