Red Rock Resorts heads into its May 1 Q1 print with short sellers retreating and the options market sending a more defensive signal than usual.
The short interest story has shifted materially in the run-up. Bearish positioning fell 15% over the past week to 5.3% of the float — its lowest level in the 30-day window tracked by ORTEX. That unwind has been swift and consistent: shorts peaked near 3.76 million shares on April 23 and have dropped every session since. Borrow costs remain negligible at 0.46%, and availability in the lending market is loose, consistent with a position that short sellers are exiting rather than building. The ORTEX short score has drifted down to 49.9 from 55 a week ago, confirming the easing pressure.
Options positioning tells a different story. The put/call ratio is running well above its recent average at 3.22 — compared to a 20-day mean of 2.67 — suggesting investors are still paying for downside protection even as short sellers step back. That caution follows a soft month for the stock, which trades near $56.06 after a modest 4% gain in April. Close peers have been weaker: HLT fell nearly 5% on the week, HGV dropped 6%, and shed more than 15%, making 's relative stability notable.
The analyst debate centres on construction disruption versus long-term asset quality. Bulls point to RRR's dominant Las Vegas locals franchise, an untapped land bank, and its North Fork tribal management contract as durable growth levers. Bears flag revenue drag from the ongoing GVR renovation — the bear case notes that Q1 faces peak construction disruption, with hotel revenue already declining in Q4. Most analysts kept Buy ratings but trimmed targets this month: JP Morgan moved to $73 from $76 and Truist Securities cut to $70 from $80, both maintaining positive ratings while acknowledging near-term pressure. The consensus mean target of $71.88 implies roughly 28% upside from current levels. One notable outlier is Morgan Stanley, which lifted its target modestly to $63 while holding an Equal-Weight view — a sign not all of the Street is convinced the discount is deep enough to buy.
Institutional holders add an interesting wrinkle. BlackRock added 3.27 million shares in Q1 2026, lifting its stake to over 12% of the company. The founding Fertitta family — Lorenzo and Frank — each trimmed holdings in December, with Frank reducing by 1.64 million shares. That split between a major passive buyer and family sellers adds a layer of ambiguity to the ownership signal heading into the print.
The earnings release is therefore less a question of whether RRR's Las Vegas locals business is structurally sound and more whether management can show that construction headwinds at GVR are peaking — and that the path to margin recovery from the current 18.4x trailing P/E is credible.
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