FirstEnergy Corp. just reported Q1 results that matched estimates — and short sellers responded by continuing their exit.
Short interest has fallen sharply over the past month. It has dropped 11.3% over the past 30 days to 4.1% of the free float, representing around 23.8 million shares. The week-on-week decline alone was 6.6%. That is a consistent, purposeful unwind rather than a one-day covering event — the history shows steady erosion from nearly 27 million shares in mid-March to current levels. The ORTEX short score is 43.0, down from 44.8 a week ago, placing FE in only the 26th percentile for short pressure across the universe. This is not a heavily shorted utility.
The lending market reflects that indifference. Cost to borrow is barely 0.45% annualised — a trivially cheap borrow that has actually eased 16% over the week. Availability is generous, and there is no sign of tightening pressure. Options sentiment is similarly relaxed: the put/call ratio of 0.61 has slipped below its 20-day average of 0.66, more than one standard deviation below the mean, suggesting call demand is outpacing puts. That is the opposite of a cautious or defensive options setup heading into earnings — investors were leaning bullish into Tuesday's release. The 52-week PCR range stretches from 0.51 to 1.50, so the current reading is well towards the optimistic end of that spectrum.
The Street has been tilting constructive. Jefferies raised its target to $52 on April 21 while maintaining Hold. TD Cowen initiated at Hold with a $56 target on April 17. Barclays, which carries an Overweight, lifted its target to $53 on April 8. JP Morgan bumped its Neutral target to $55 in mid-March. The consensus mean target is $53.36, against a closing price of $48.94 — implying roughly 9% upside from here. That gap is modest but coherent. The forward EPS growth picture is arguably the most striking factor: FE ranks in the 97th percentile for 12-month forward EPS year-on-year growth, and the dividend score sits in the 89th percentile. For a regulated utility, those are strong signals. The PE of 17.7x has compressed about 0.5 points over the past month, nudging the stock modestly cheaper on a trailing basis. Q1 slides highlighted 7.5% EPS growth and flagged an incoming data-centre demand tailwind.
Institutional ownership shows active managers adding rather than trimming. BlackRock added 2.55 million shares in the quarter to March 31. State Street added 1.62 million. Vanguard added 761,000. Capital Research — the largest holder at 13.4% — added 730,000. Across the top holders, the direction of flow is clearly constructive. There is no large institutional seller visible in recent filings.
The insider picture is worth a note of context. The CFO sold $1.37 million of stock in March, and the COO sold roughly $770,000 in late February. These were modest, routine transactions following equity award cycles — the CEO received a 229,580-share award on February 27 — and the significance scores are low. The net 90-day position is modestly positive in share terms, but these sales at prices around $50-51 are notable given the stock now trades at $48.94.
Close peers all rose on the week. PPL gained 2.0%, EXC 1.7%, DUK 1.7%, and OGE 2.3%. FE posted a 1.1% weekly gain, slightly trailing the peer group — which moved broadly in line with a sector rotation into defensives. The Q1 print itself showed revenue growth and earnings in line with estimates; the stock fell just 1.0% on the day of the release, a contained reaction. The next earnings date is May 20.
With shorts retreating, borrow cheap and loose, institutional holders adding, and analyst targets clustered above the current price, the next focus shifts to how management's data-centre demand commentary translates into capital plan updates at the May event.
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