MP Materials arrives at its June 9 earnings call in a materially different position than just three days ago — the stock is down hard, shorts are slightly covering, but options traders have swung sharply defensive in a way that dominates everything else heading into the print.
The options signal is the loudest alarm right now. The put/call ratio has jumped to 0.90, more than three standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.52 — the most defensive options positioning seen in the past year relative to recent norms. That shift happened fast: the PCR held near 0.47–0.51 for most of May, then spiked abruptly on June 4–5 as the stock fell 9.6% on Friday alone. The stock has shed 13% over the past month to $59.18, reversing most of what looked like a controlled rally in late May. The previous ORTEX note from June 3 flagged the stock as "up 8% on the month" — that picture has changed sharply.
Short interest, at 14.8% of free float, remains elevated but has actually eased slightly. Short sellers trimmed nearly 5% of their position over the past week, continuing a gradual reduction from the ~28.4 million shares shorted in mid-May. The borrow market, however, has tightened further to near-record extremes. Availability has collapsed to just 0.4% — for every 250 shares currently shorted, barely one additional share remains available to borrow. That is close to the 52-week low of 0.14%. Cost to borrow, at 0.95% annualised, is not punishing, but the near-zero availability means any short-side build is practically impossible. The setup is one of stubborn structural short pressure with no room to add.
The analyst community has been broadly constructive. Barclays initiated at Overweight with a $69 target on May 22, and Needham kicked off coverage with a Buy at $81 on June 1 — two new bulls entering just ahead of earnings. Morgan Stanley raised its target from $62 to $70 in mid-May, also Overweight. The consensus mean target of $80 implies roughly 35% upside from current levels. Bulls focus on MP's contract-backed revenue growth, rare earth supply chain positioning, and the improving Altman Z-score, which has climbed to 5.6 — the strongest balance sheet reading in months. Bears point to heavy dependence on rare earth oxide pricing, single-revenue concentration risk, and sensitivity to trade-policy shifts. One data point cuts across the analyst optimism: founder and CEO James Litinsky sold over $15 million of stock across May 27–29, at prices between $64 and $68 — well above where the stock closed Friday. The COO Michael Rosenthal bought $963,000 worth at $56.62 on May 20, a counterpoint that the prior note highlighted, but the CEO's net selling dwarfs that signal.
The last earnings print on May 7 saw the stock fall 7.2% on day one and 17% over the following five days. Monday's June 9 report arrives with the stock already down sharply, options traders heavily hedged, and the borrow market essentially closed to new shorts — a setup where the earnings print will test whether the recent selloff already priced the risk, or whether the CEO's aggressive selling ahead of the release was the more informed read.
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