Riskified heads into the summer with a persistent seller sitting at the table — a board member and 10% owner who has unloaded shares on fourteen of the last eighteen trading days.
The insider story is the clearest signal this week. Erez Shachar, a venture-capital board member and 10% owner, sold roughly 950,000 shares across late May and the first days of June, pulling in just over $4.3 million at prices ranging from $4.80 to $4.99. The sales are relentless rather than dramatic — no single block stands out, but the consistency tells a story. CFO Aglika Dotcheva added two smaller sell transactions on May 19 and June 1. Net insider activity over the past 90 days is negative to the tune of approximately $4.3 million. Founder and CTO Assaf Feldman also trimmed in early May. Every senior name visible in the filing register has been a seller, and none has bought.
Short positioning tells a far less alarming story. Short interest is just 1.2% of the free float — low by any measure — and the direction has been down, not up. Over the past month, short interest has fallen roughly 18%, suggesting bears are actually covering. Borrowing costs are negligible at 0.40% APR, roughly a quarter of where they were in mid-May, and availability is extremely loose at around 1,963% — close to twenty shares available in the lending pool for every one currently shorted. None of that screams a directional bet against the stock.
Options positioning, however, has shifted. The put/call ratio has climbed to 0.21, more than two standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.14 — a defensive tilt that is notable given how low the PCR baseline typically runs. The ratio was still grinding around 0.12 through most of May; this week's move is one of the sharpest deviations of the past year. That doesn't reflect crowded short positioning — it looks more like incremental hedging from existing holders who are watching the insider selling and the flat price action and deciding to buy some protection.
The Street's conviction is similarly muted. The consensus sits at hold, with the mean price target around $5.55 — a modest premium to the current $4.75 close. The most recent formal analyst action was Truist Securities lowering its target from $8 to $7 in early March while keeping a Buy rating. That note is now over three months old. Other targets from late 2025 cluster in the $5.25–$6.00 range. Bulls point to Riskified's 8% adjusted EBITDA margin, a solid balance sheet, and expanding adoption of its Chargeback Guarantee product in e-commerce risk intelligence. Bears flag uncertainty around agentic commerce models that could erode core fraud-detection features, along with questions about whether recently onboarded merchants convert to durable long-run revenue. The most recent earnings print, in mid-May, produced a 1.3% next-day gain and a 6.8% five-day gain — a constructive reaction, though not one that changed the stock's trajectory materially. The next scheduled release is around August 12.
Correlated peers have had a softer week too. WEAV shed 5.5% over the past seven days, ESTC fell 4.5%, and FIVN dropped 3.4%. Riskified's own 2.7% weekly decline puts it in line with the peer group's weakness rather than flagging anything stock-specific beyond the insider noise. EPS momentum factor scores rank in the 85th and 79th percentiles on 30- and 90-day windows respectively — forward estimates are moving in the right direction, which provides at least some fundamental underpinning.
The setup to watch is simple: whether the Shachar selling program slows or stops will be the clearest read on insider conviction at these price levels, and the PCR's deviation from its mean will tell whether that hedging impulse is spreading or fading.
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