Ryman Hospitality Properties heads into its Q1 2026 earnings report — due after the close today — with the Street firmly in its corner and short sellers retreating fast.
The analyst picture has been unusually active. Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to Overweight from Equal-Weight on April 10, lifting its target from $88 to $105. That was a meaningful directional shift from a bellwether firm. Wells Fargo followed days later, raising its target from $105 to $114 while holding its Overweight rating. JP Morgan bumped its target to $111. The direction of travel across the Street is consistent: almost all recent moves have been target raises, and the mean price target sits at $116. Against the current close of $103.62, that implies roughly 12% upside — and analyst recommendation divergence ranks in the 95th percentile versus the broader universe, meaning the bullish skew here is notably extreme. The 14.5% price gain over the past month has partly closed the gap, but the Street doesn't appear to think the run is over.
Short positioning tells a similarly unambiguous story. Estimated short interest dropped 22% over the week to 2.9% of the free float — a sharp pullback that follows a spike near 3.8% in mid-April and an even higher reading of around 4.3% at end-March. Shorts built up through March, held elevated positions through most of April, and are now covering aggressively. The borrow market is consistent with that picture: cost to borrow is minimal at 0.44% annualised, and availability is loose. Nothing in the lending data points to squeeze mechanics or borrow stress — this looks like shorts choosing to exit ahead of earnings, not being forced out. The ORTEX short score has also dropped materially, from around 40 at mid-month to 36.8 now, reflecting the easing pressure.
The options market complicates the picture somewhat. The put/call ratio has been running well above its historical norm — near 5.3 to 5.9 for the past week, compared to a 20-day average of 3.5 and a 52-week low of 0.52. That is a heavily put-skewed book by any measure. The z-score of roughly 0.97 suggests the reading is elevated but not extreme by recent standards, and the 52-week high of 6.7 was touched just two weeks ago. Options traders appear to be carrying meaningful downside protection into the print, even as short sellers cover. The two signals are pulling in opposite directions: shorts reducing exposure, options owners hedging more.
Valuation has re-rated noticeably alongside the price move. The P/E multiple has expanded by nearly 1.9 points over 30 days to 23.3x, and price-to-book has risen by 0.9 points to 5.5x. EV/EBITDA is running at 12.1x. For a hotel REIT, these are not cheap multiples — but the 12m forward yield of 4.78% and a dividend score ranking in the 81st percentile provide income support that pure hospitality equities lack. The RSI14 at 63.8 reflects a stock with momentum but not yet technically overbought. Peer hotel REITs had a good week: RLJ gained 4.7% and APLE added 3.9%, suggesting the broader sector tailwind is real rather than idiosyncratic to RHP.
The earnings history provides relevant context. The last reported quarter, in late February, produced a 1-day decline of roughly 2% and a 5-day loss of around 4.9%. The prior event showed a similar shape — a modest initial dip that extended over the following week. Today's print is therefore less about whether Q1 showed strength and more about whether management's commentary on forward booking trends, convention calendar fill rates, and the entertainment segment can justify the 14.5% run-up into the report.
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