Coinbase Global enters earnings week carrying its sharpest monthly drawdown in months — down 23% over 30 days and 19% on the week alone to $152.40 — while shorts hold their ground and the Street quietly trims targets ahead of the June 16 print.
The price collapse is the dominant fact this week. The stock closed at $152.40 on Friday, a level that puts it well below even the most cautious analyst targets from just a month ago. Crypto peers moved in the same direction but none quite as hard: HOOD fell 13% on the week, GLXY dropped 15%, and BLSH and XXI both fell roughly 23% — suggesting sector-wide pressure rather than a COIN-specific event, though the magnitude of COIN's decline stands out even in that company.
Short positioning has barely shifted despite the rout, which is the more telling signal. SI % of free float ticked down to 10.8% from 10.9% last week — almost flat over seven days, and still near the 11.7% peak reached in mid-May. Roughly 24.6 million shares remain short. The borrow market gives no signal of stress: cost to borrow is a negligible 0.42%, and availability is loose at 359% of short interest, meaning there are more than three shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. The short base is sticky but there is no squeeze mechanism in place. Bears are not running, but nor are new shorts piling in aggressively at this price level.
Options traders, meanwhile, have turned notably less defensive even as the stock fell. The put/call ratio dropped to 0.69 on Friday — its lowest reading in several weeks and below the 20-day average of 0.71. The z-score sits at -0.95, meaning the ratio is actually on the call-heavy side of its recent range. That is a sharp contrast to the near-three-standard-deviation defensive spike flagged in early May. One interpretation: with the stock already down 23% in a month, traders are less inclined to buy more downside protection and are instead positioning for a bounce or a beat on June 16.
The Street is cutting numbers but not conviction. After a wave of post-Q1 target reductions in early May — JP Morgan trimmed to $283, Barclays cut to $107 while maintaining Underweight — Baird lowered its target again on June 5, moving from $160 to $142 while holding Neutral. The consensus mean price target of $229.74 still sits roughly 50% above the current price, though that gap reflects the spread between bulls holding targets in the $260–$310 range and the Barclays bear case at $107. The analyst recommendation divergence factor scores in the 94th percentile, meaning the Street is more split on this name than almost any other in the universe. Bulls point to Coinbase's role as the institutional onramp for crypto and its diversified revenue beyond spot trading; bears cite transaction-fee volatility, the outsized dependence on crypto price levels, and uncertainty around regulatory tailwinds materialising into actual revenue growth. EV/EBITDA of 14.5x and a PE near 54x leave the valuation story dependent on a strong forward earnings trajectory — and the EPS momentum factors, ranked in the 3rd and 4th percentile over 30 and 90 days respectively, are not currently supportive.
The earnings history adds modest context without resolving the tension. The two most recent prints produced next-day moves of +1.6% and +5.2%, with five-day moves of +7.1% and +6.2% respectively — both were positive reactions. Whether that pattern holds after a 23% pre-earnings drawdown, with the stock now trading below several analyst floor targets, is the central question the June 16 call will answer.
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