CPB delivered an earnings beat on June 8. Short sellers haven't left. The borrow market tells you why.
Cost to borrow sits at 5.996% — more than four times where it stood six weeks ago. The put-call ratio just hit 2.5 standard deviations above its 20-day mean. Bears are still paying a premium to hold their positions, and options positioning is moving with them.
The June 8 report was a split outcome: EPS beat, revenue miss. Campbell's cleared a low bar on earnings but couldn't demonstrate volume recovery. That result left the bear case structurally intact.
Short interest stands at 17.8% of free float as of June 5. That's down from the 27.5% reading cited in last week's pre-earnings report — reflecting some short covering around the print — but it remains historically elevated for a packaged food name. Cost to borrow jumped from roughly 1.5% in early May to a peak above 6.6% last week. It has edged back to 5.996% but has not normalised.
Availability sits at 36.5% — meaning for every share currently borrowed, only about a third of one more remains available to lend. That is tight. A week ago it was as low as 23%.
The put-call ratio rose to 0.72 on June 8. The 20-day mean is 0.657. At 2.5 standard deviations above that mean, the move is statistically significant. Bears are adding protection through options even as the stock trades roughly 3% higher post-earnings.
Barclays cut its target to $19 on June 8, maintaining Underweight. Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $21 on June 5. Both moves came after the earnings setup was already clear. The mean analyst price target sits at $21.94 — barely above the current price of $21.49.
The earnings beat cleared the most immediate catalyst. It did not clear the positioning. Short sellers are still paying elevated borrow costs to stay in a crowded trade — and the options market is still pricing in downside risk.
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