Great Southern Bancorp heads into its May 13 Q1 earnings call with a notable paradox: the stock has climbed 9% over the past month to $67.55, but insiders have been consistently trimming — and options traders have rarely been this bullish.
The clearest signal from insiders is a steady stream of sells. Over the past 90 days, net insider selling totalled roughly $1.26 million across shares. The most recent transaction was VP John Bugh offloading 2,500 shares at $67.59 on April 20. Chairman William Turner and CEO Joseph Turner each sold 6,000 shares in late January, when the stock was trading in the low $60s. These are modest in absolute terms — GSBC is thinly traded — but the direction of travel is unanimous: no insider has bought in the disclosed window.
Options positioning tells the opposite story. Call interest is far outrunning put demand, with the put/call ratio at just 0.18 — well below its 20-day average of 0.46. That reading is close to the lowest level of the past year (the 52-week low was 0.16). Put another way, the options market is positioned for more upside even as the stock trades at, and fractionally above, the Street's mean price target of $67.50.
Short interest is not the angle here. At 2.8% of the free float, it's a modest position by any measure. The lending market is loose — borrow costs around 0.45% annually, and availability is ample. Short sellers pared positions sharply during the week ending April 24, with estimated shares short down roughly 8% on the week before ticking back up. The ORTEX short score sits at 41, well below the midpoint of its 0-100 range, ranking in the 17th percentile of the universe — this is not a heavily shorted name.
The sole active analyst covering GSBC, Damon Delmonte at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, raised his price target to $65 in April — still below the current price. His rating remains Market Perform. With the stock now trading above his target, the setup heading into earnings is one where execution needs to justify the premium. Q1 preliminary results already signalled $1.58 EPS per diluted share, which likely explains the recent Zacks upgrade to Strong Buy. EPS surprise ranks in the 89th percentile of the universe — GSBC has a genuine track record of beating estimates.
The ownership structure adds a layer of stability. The Turner family partnership holds 14.4% of shares with no reported change. Earl Steinert holds 8.6%. Together, founder-aligned holders account for well over 20% of the company — leaving a relatively small free float for institutional players. State Street and Geode both added modestly in Q1, while Simmons Bank trimmed around 26,400 shares. The ownership base is not in motion.
The setup heading into May 13 is one where options traders are positioned for further gains, insiders are gradually monetising the re-rating, and the one analyst covering the name has a target the stock has already passed. What the print needs to resolve is whether that premium to target is the beginning of a re-rating or the ceiling.
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