Driven Brands Holdings reports tomorrow with the most important data story of the past month still in motion: short sellers have continued unwinding positions that were far heavier just six weeks ago.
The short cover trend has accelerated since the June 6 article noted the bulk of exits had occurred. SI % of FF has now fallen to 6.7% — down from roughly 17.9% in late May and a peak near 23.3% in late April. That is a dramatic compression in a short period. The borrow market reflects no distress: availability is comfortable at 249%, borrowing costs remain near the floor at 0.49% APR, and the short score has edged higher this week to 67.3 after drifting sideways through late May, suggesting a modest re-engagement by bears even as the broader cover trend holds. Options tell a different story — the put/call ratio is nearly at its 52-week low of 0.0084, well below its 20-day average, pointing to almost no demand for downside protection ahead of the print.
The analyst community is cautious but not panicked. Following the most recent quarterly release in May — which sent the stock down nearly 9% on the day — most covering firms trimmed targets rather than pulled ratings. Morgan Stanley lowered to $16, RBC to $18, BTIG to $17, and BMO to $14, all while holding existing ratings. The mean consensus target of $17.14 sits roughly 30% above the current price of $13.21, implying the Street sees significant recovery potential, though the direction of recent moves signals confidence in the business has been tested. Bulls point to the Take 5 segment's relative resilience and the auto glass unit as an underappreciated growth driver. Bears flag softening traffic trends, ADAS-related cost inflation in collision repair, and limited pricing control in the franchise model.
Institutional ownership adds one genuinely notable angle. Roark Capital still holds 61.6% of shares — a controlling stake that last reported unchanged as of September 2024. Several smaller active managers built new positions in Q1 2026, including ADW Capital (4 million shares, entirely new) and Rubric Capital (3 million shares, also new), while Vanguard entities added meaningfully. The pattern suggests conviction buyers were stepping in as short interest peaked and the stock traded near multi-year lows. The last two earnings prints both saw the stock fall — down roughly 9% on the day in May, and up less than 2% in the prior quarter — leaving a mixed record on reaction.
The print is therefore less a test of whether Take 5 can sustain comps and more a question of whether management can demonstrate that the steep short-cover of the past six weeks was warranted — and whether the franchise cost structure holds up well enough to close the gap between the current price and the targets analysts have been, until now, steadily cutting.
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