MGM Resorts International enters the week with short sellers extending their rebuild — short interest has now climbed to 9.5% of the free float, up from 8.6% a week ago, even as the stock has added another 21% over the past month to $47.15.
The short position has grown consistently since early May, rising 44% in a month to roughly 26 million shares. That is the highest level in the 30-day window and marks a continuation of the trend flagged in last week's note. Yet the lending market offers no mechanical pressure on those bears. Borrow costs remain negligible at 0.48%, barely moved on the week. Availability has actually loosened to 888% — up from 815% a week ago — meaning the pool of shares available to borrow has expanded even as the position has grown. Bears can add cheaply and freely. Options positioning is calm: the put/call ratio sits at 0.71, essentially in line with its 20-day average of 0.70, with a z-score near zero. Neither side of the options market is making a strong directional bet.
The Street is divided, and the recent analyst action captures that tension precisely. Truist upgraded MGM to Buy with a $55 target in late May, citing the stock's momentum. But within days, CBRE downgraded to Hold and UBS lifted its target from $39 to $50 while staying at Neutral — a pattern of rising targets paired with cautious ratings that reflects genuine uncertainty about valuation rather than outright bearishness. The consensus sits at hold, with a mean price target of $46.17, fractionally below the current price of $47.15. The bull case rests on a 31% year-over-year EBITDAR jump, 12% growth in forward group room night bookings, and a 35% surge in digital revenue. The bear case points to Las Vegas Strip weakness in non-luxury properties, declining occupancy and average daily rates, and EBITDAR estimates that have been revised lower for both 2025 and 2026. The EV/EBITDA multiple has drifted down modestly over 30 days to around 9x, and the P/E has expanded to roughly 22x on the price move — the short score factor rank sits at just 23rd percentile, consistent with meaningful bearish positioning relative to peers.
The ownership picture adds one notable data point. IAC/InteractiveCorp — the 10% owner listed in the institutional holder table — bought one million shares across two days in late March at prices around $37, a trade worth over $37 million at cost. At the current price of $47, that position is sitting on a material gain, which makes the continued short rebuild all the more striking: a major insider-aligned holder is long and in profit, while external short sellers keep adding.
Gaming peers had a better week. WYNN added 2.7% and BYD rose 3.3%, while MGM slipped 2.5% — a small divergence, but notable given that MGM's recent price surge was the primary driver of the short rebuild in the first place.
Next quarter's earnings are scheduled for July 29. The data points to watch between now and then are whether short interest continues to grow past the 10% of float threshold, and whether the gap between a rising price and a consensus target that is now below spot begins to pull analyst targets higher — or pulls the stock back toward them.
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