MSTR has now shed 38% over the past month and 14% on the week alone to close at $117, and the earnings release on June 8 — which produced a 2.8% one-day drop — has done nothing to shift the short sellers who were firmly in place heading into the print.
The positioning story is one of patient bears and a borrow market that rewards their patience. Short interest ticked up 2.7% on the week to 15.1% of the free float — nearly 40.4 million shares — extending a build that began in early May when shares short jumped from around 35 million to over 40 million in a single session. That accumulation has held. Despite the stock losing more than a third of its value this month, there has been no meaningful cover. The borrow market explains why: cost to borrow is just 0.43%, a level that costs shorts almost nothing to maintain their position. Availability, at 211%, has tightened meaningfully from 288% two weeks ago and is now at its narrowest in the past 30 days — but with more than two shares still available for every one lent, there is no squeeze pressure. The ORTEX short score edged up to 60.1, its highest recent reading, consistent with a bearish setup that is building rather than unwinding. Options have flipped in the opposite direction: the put/call ratio dropped to 0.96 on June 9, about 1.3 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.01. That shift — from defensive to slightly more bullish options positioning — is notable given how hard the stock has just fallen, and suggests some participants are reaching for calls rather than adding more downside protection.
The Street remains structurally bullish but is actively walking back its numbers. Canaccord Genuity cut its target to $163 from $224 on June 3. Mizuho trimmed to $265 from $320 on June 1, retaining its Outperform. Both moves follow the pattern of maintained ratings with reduced targets — a signal of conviction about the thesis but not the near-term price. The consensus mean is $352, against a stock at $117. That gap is enormous, but it reflects the nature of the debate: bulls like TD Cowen at $400 and Benchmark at $570 are valuing MSTR as a leveraged bitcoin accumulator, not as a software multiple, and the spread between those targets and the current price has widened dramatically as Bitcoin-linked equities have sold off. The EV/EBITDA multiple is running near 902x — a number that is essentially a bitcoin premium, not a traditional earnings valuation. EPS surprise ranks in the 81st percentile, a reminder that the underlying enterprise software operation still delivers, but momentum factor scores have deteriorated sharply: the 30-day EPS momentum score ranks in just the 5th percentile.
The institutional picture adds one genuinely interesting data point. Capital Research and Management added 12.8 million shares in the most recent reporting period, lifting their stake to 12.3% of shares outstanding — the single largest disclosed position. BlackRock added 3.1 million shares to reach 5%. Both moves predate the recent price slide, so they reflect buying at considerably higher levels. Michael Saylor's holding is effectively unchanged at 5.7%. The insider activity on June 9 tells a different story: CEO Phong Le, CFO Andrew Kang, and Chief Accounting Officer Jeanine Montgomery all sold on the day, though the combined value was modest at roughly $850,000 total. The trades carry a significance score of just 1, consistent with scheduled plan sales rather than a discretionary signal, but the timing — into a falling stock and the day after an earnings release — is worth noting.
Among crypto-equity peers, the selloff is broad but MSTR is not leading it lower. MARA fell 6.8% on the week, RIOT dropped 7.4%, and BTBT lost 11.1% — all painful, but less than MSTR's 14%. CRCL was the outlier, down nearly 20%. The group is moving together, which means MSTR's next catalyst is likely sector-wide: the direction of Bitcoin from here will determine whether the short build at 15% of float starts to look crowded, or whether bears continue to find the trade cheap to maintain.
The next scheduled event is the August 4 earnings call — the question between now and then is whether the gap between a $117 stock and a $352 consensus target closes from above or below.
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