NVIDIA heads into the final two weeks before its June 24 earnings print having given back 6.6% this week alone, now trading at $208.19 — and with every prior catalyst having failed to close the gap with where analysts think the stock belongs.
The Street remains overwhelmingly in the bull camp, and the conviction is notable for its breadth. Forty-nine buy ratings underpin a consensus mean target of $298, implying roughly 43% upside from current levels. Recent activity has reinforced rather than challenged that view: China Renaissance initiated with a Buy and a $319 target earlier this month, while Tigress lifted its target from $360 to $425 in late May after the Q1 print. UBS, Evercore ISI, and RBC all raised targets following earnings on May 21. The bull case centres on NVIDIA's locked-in position across AI infrastructure, the CUDA software moat, and a datacenter capex cycle that shows no sign of peaking. Bears, to the extent they exist on the sell side, point not to a product problem but to a valuation one — and even that argument has softened as multiples have compressed. The trailing P/E is now running at roughly 19.7x, down from close to 23.4x a month ago. EV/EBITDA has similarly eased to around 16x. Factor scores add texture: EPS momentum over 30 days ranks in the 80th percentile, dividend quality in the 92nd — though forward EPS estimate momentum has cooled, sitting at just the 12th percentile on a year-on-year basis, a quiet signal that the rate of upward revisions is slowing.
Positioning in the lending market offers no drama. Short interest is barely worth discussing at 1.18% of the free float, down slightly on the week and essentially unchanged for months. Borrow availability is effectively unlimited — the lending pool has shown no sign of constraint across the entire 30-day history in the data. Cost to borrow has ticked up about 11% on the week to 0.24%, but in absolute terms it remains close to zero, the kind of level that reflects an entirely uncontested short thesis. Options positioning is equally calm: the put/call ratio of 0.84 is almost exactly in line with its 20-day average of 0.83, with a z-score near zero. There is no options-market signal of unusual hedging or directional positioning ahead of the earnings date. The borrow and options data together describe a stock where bears simply aren't showing up in size.
The insider picture is worth flagging, though the headline has not changed since the June 8 note documented it in detail. Director Mark Stevens completed three sell tranches between June 2 and June 4 — roughly one million shares at prices between $217 and $222, totalling approximately $221 million. The stock has since slipped below those execution prices. Ninety-day net insider value sold stands at approximately $274 million, with no offsetting purchases from any insider over the same window. These are clearly scheduled or plan-driven sales rather than tactical exits — the trade significance scores are moderate — but the scale is unusual enough to remain part of the backdrop.
Among correlated peers this week, AVGO had a notably rougher ride, falling 18.6% over the past five sessions against NVDA's 6.6% decline. KLAC held up better, gaining 4.6% on the week. AMAT added roughly 1.9%. The relative performance gap between NVDA and AVGO is the widest in the peer group and worth tracking as a sentiment read on the broader AI infrastructure theme.
The June 24 print is now fourteen days away. The last two earnings releases each produced a negative next-day move — down 3.6% and down 0.5% — with five-day returns of -4.1% and -3.6% respectively. The pattern is established. What the next print has to answer is whether a stock that has drifted 6.6% lower in a single week, with no short pressure and no hedging signal, can finally produce a reaction that matches the analysts' conviction.
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