TTM Technologies has clawed back from last week's steep sell-off, but short sellers are quietly adding pressure just as the stock approaches its next earnings date.
The partial recovery tells only half the story on positioning. Short interest climbed roughly 8% in a single session on June 9 to reach 4.1% of the free float — the highest level in the 30-day window and up nearly 20% from a month ago. That acceleration is worth tracking: the move from ~3.5 million shares short in late April to over 4.2 million now represents a deliberate rebuild, not noise. Cost to borrow has also picked up, rising around 33% over the week to 0.46% — still firmly in "easy borrow" territory, but the directional move echoes the rising short count. What offsets any squeeze thesis is the sheer size of the lending pool: availability stands near 1,885% of short interest, meaning there are roughly 18 shares available to borrow for every one currently shorted. The borrow market is loose, and entry for new short positions remains frictionless. Options traders, meanwhile, are clearly not hedging into the July 29 earnings — the put/call ratio at 0.38 runs below its 20-day average of 0.41, sitting well toward the call-heavy end of its annual range.
The Street's view remains constructively bullish, though the market has been less accommodating. Four firms raised targets on May 28 — Truist to $215, B. Riley and Needham each to $208, Stifel to $205 — none changed ratings, all held Buy. The consensus target of $209 implies roughly 20% upside from Tuesday's close of $173.86, a gap that widened after the June 5 sell-off and has only partially closed since. The bull case centres on TTM's deepening exposure to aerospace and defence, AI data centre PCB complexity, and space electronics — verticals with structural demand tailwinds. The bear case is simpler: revenue execution has been lumpy, and the stock's 130%-plus year-to-date run entering June makes any delivery miss painful. EPS momentum scores remain strong (85th percentile over 30 days, 81st over 90 days), but the forward EV/EBIT multiple sits in just the 17th percentile on value — the stock is not cheap, and the quality of earnings delivery will matter at the July print.
The institutional picture is broadly stable. BlackRock holds 13.1% and added modestly through May. Geode Capital added around 488,000 shares in the most recent period. Whale Rock trimmed by nearly 762,000 shares as of the March quarter-end, a meaningful reduction from a top-ten holder. On the insider side, director Thomas Edman sold 16,800 shares on May 1 at $157.06 — his third such transaction this year, following similar-sized sales in April and March at much lower prices. The pattern looks more like a scheduled programme than a directional statement, but the regularity is notable given how quickly the stock has moved.
The last two earnings reports produced back-to-back single-day declines of roughly 4.5% to 4.7%, while the April 29 print delivered a 15% jump and a five-day follow-through of nearly 20%. The dispersion in those reactions — ranging from -4.7% to +15% on the day — means the stock has a wide outcome distribution around earnings. The July 29 event is the next fixed point on the calendar, and the widening gap between the current price and the consensus target will focus attention squarely on whether TTM's execution in the quarter matches the confidence the Street expressed in late May.
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