ASML Extends Recovery — Valuation Multiple Keeps Climbing

ASML has added another 3.2% this week to close at €1,508.40, and the arithmetic problem that defined the last two notes has not resolved — it has deepened.

The valuation story is the standout this week. The trailing P/E has now reached 42.1x, up more than 4.5 turns over the past month, while price-to-book has expanded to 22.2x — a 2.3-turn move in 30 days. EV/EBITDA is running at 32.6x. These are not marginal moves. The earnings-estimate backdrop isn't keeping pace: the 30-day EPS momentum score ranks in the 47th percentile, the 90-day version in the 52nd. In plain terms, the stock is being re-rated upward on confidence in the cycle, not on analysts lifting numbers. Quality remains the structural anchor — ORTEX factor scores place ASML near the 95th percentile on dividend reliability and the 87th percentile on days-to-cover — but quality is carrying more and more of the multiple's weight. The JP Morgan $2,200 target, raised on June 3, still sits roughly 46% above the Street's consensus mean. That gap has not narrowed as the stock has continued to climb.

The lending market remains completely unambiguous: there is no short-selling pressure here. Share availability is effectively unlimited — over 200 million shares available to borrow, with lending activity running at a fraction of a percent of the float. The ORTEX short score of 25.2 ranks in the 96th percentile for absence of short interest, meaning almost no stock in the coverage universe has less bearish positioning. One note of curiosity: cost to borrow has spiked to 1.83% from under 0.70% a week ago — a 167% jump — though at these absolute levels it reflects technical volatility in the lending rate rather than any meaningful supply squeeze. There is nothing in the borrow market to suggest bears are loading up.

The recent earnings pattern is worth keeping in mind with Q2 results scheduled for July 15. The last two prints each produced negative one-day reactions: a 4.8% drop after the April 15 release and a 1.1% decline after the April 22 event. Both five-day reactions were also negative, running at roughly -2.7% and -3.6% respectively. The stock has historically punished any shortfall in guidance precision, even when absolute results held up. Given how much the multiple has expanded going into this print, the bar for a positive reaction looks higher than usual.

Among close peers, AMAT added 1.9% on the week and BESI gained 0.3%. LRCX slipped 2.2% and MKSI fell 3.1% — making ASML's 3.2% weekly gain one of the stronger moves in the group. The divergence reflects ASML's specific AI infrastructure demand thesis rather than a broad equipment-sector re-rating, which makes the July 15 order-book update the critical test of whether that thesis is currently priced correctly or generously.

The question heading into July 15 is no longer whether ASML is a quality business — that case is settled — but whether €1,508 already prices in the demand acceleration that the most bullish voices on the Street are projecting.