GDX enters the week under meaningful pressure — the gold miners ETF has dropped nearly 12% in seven days and short sellers have responded with a sharp acceleration in bearish positioning that now ranks as one of the more consequential shifts in the ETF's recent history.
The most striking development is in short interest. Bearish positions jumped 16% in a single session on June 9, pushing short interest to 14.7% of the free float — up from roughly 12.4% just a week ago and the highest level in the 30-day window. That one-day move of nearly 6 million additional shares shorted is not a gradual drift; it looks like a deliberate tactical addition. The monthly trend reinforces this: short interest has grown 12.6% over the past month as well, meaning the build predates this week's price drop and has only accelerated as the ETF fell. Bears were positioned for weakness before it arrived and added conviction once it did.
The borrow market, however, does not yet look stressed. Availability is running at 117% — meaning roughly one share is available to borrow for every share already borrowed — which is comfortably in the normal range and has actually loosened slightly on the week. Cost to borrow is a negligible 0.52%, down 25% from a week ago. That combination tells an important story: the short interest build is not being constrained by a tight lending market, and there is no immediate mechanical squeeze pressure from a dwindling borrow pool. The 52-week minimum availability for GDX was 9.3%, recorded when the borrow pool was genuinely stressed; current conditions are far from that extreme. Options positioning is similarly mild — the put/call ratio is 1.03, just slightly below its 20-day average of 1.07 and well off its 52-week high of 2.06. Options traders are not pressing the bearish case harder than usual.
The institutional snapshot adds texture. As of the most recent filings, Goldman Sachs added over 5.4 million shares in the March quarter — the largest single addition among the top fifteen holders — while JPMorgan added 4.1 million. BMO, the largest holder at 5.4% of shares, added 3.2 million shares over the same period. On the other side, Wells Fargo trimmed by 3.2 million and Morgan Stanley cut by 1.2 million. The pattern suggests a rotation rather than a wholesale exit: large institutional allocators were net buyers in Q1 even as others reduced. Whether that appetite survives a fund that has now fallen 18% in a month is the open question.
The ORTEX short score has edged to 66.2, its highest reading in the trailing 10-day window, consistent with the rapid SI build. The score's steady climb from 63.6 at end of May reflects a market that is growing incrementally more negative on the ETF, not one that has flipped suddenly. That measured progression, combined with loose borrow conditions and a PCR that is below its recent average, suggests the short positioning is driven more by directional conviction on gold miners than by a reflexive panic hedge.
What to watch next: whether the borrow pool begins to tighten as more participants look to add shorts at these elevated short-interest levels, and whether gold spot prices stabilise enough to slow the rate of new short additions into GDX.
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