Commvault Systems enters the week with an unusual split: short sellers are rebuilding positions at the fastest pace in months, while options traders have moved to their most bullish stance of the past year.
Short interest has climbed sharply — up 33% in a single month to 6.5% of the free float, with the weekly move alone running at 8.6%. That rate of accumulation is notable. Looking at the history, shorts were near 2.3 million shares at the start of May; they're now approaching 2.9 million. The borrow market, however, is not confirming distress. Availability is extraordinarily loose at 1,832%, meaning there are roughly 18 shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. Cost to borrow has actually eased to 0.48%, down about 12% on the week, and is sitting well below its May highs. The lending side tells a story of abundant supply: shorts are rebuilding not because they're squeezing in, but because the borrow market is wide open and inviting.
Options tell a very different story. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.24 — near the 52-week low of 0.20 — and well below its 20-day average of 0.36. That's the strongest lean toward calls relative to recent norms all year, a stark contrast to the April-May period when the PCR was running above 0.79. The shift is sharp and sustained: the PCR has stayed below 0.25 for six consecutive sessions. Options traders are not hedging — they're positioning for more upside after a 15.9% gain in the past month.
The Street is cautiously catching up to that move. Mizuho raised its price target to $140 from $130 this morning, maintaining an Outperform. That's the most aggressive current target from a named firm, and it puts Mizuho's number 15% above the current price of $121.77. Following April's earnings — when the stock jumped 14.4% in a day and extended to 16.3% over five days — several houses lifted targets, though most remain below current levels: RBC and Scotiabank both moved to $110 post-results, still well underwater. Keybanc is at $125. The consensus is a Hold, which understates the recent bullishness in price action. The bull case centres on cyber resilience demand, subscription revenue growth, and a strong forward earnings revision cycle — the 12-month forward EPS momentum factor ranks in the 95th percentile. Bears focus on new-logo acquisition challenges and competitive pressure in cloud backup.
On the institutional side, BlackRock added about 61,000 shares in May to hold 14.4% of the company — the largest single position. Acadian added nearly 462,000 shares through April, while quant shops Two Sigma and AQR both built new-or-enlarged positions in the first quarter. D.E. Shaw nearly doubled its stake, adding 734,000 shares. That cluster of quant activity through Q1, combined with index managers holding steady, suggests the passive and systematic bid has been building underneath the price action.
The ORTEX short score has ticked up to 43.6 from 40.4 two weeks ago — moving in the same direction as the raw short interest build — but remains in moderate territory. Among close peers, RBRK fell 12.9% on the week and MANH dropped 5.5%, making CVLT's near-flat performance look relatively resilient. The next earnings event is scheduled for July 28, and with the PCR at a 52-week low and shorts rebuilding into a rising stock, the gap between those two positioning signals is the tension worth tracking into that print.
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