AMC Entertainment enters mid-June with its short position continuing to retreat and options sentiment flipping to its most bullish extreme of the past year — a notable shift from a week ago when covering had stalled and the rally looked fragile.
The short-interest decline has accelerated. Shorts fell another 8.4% on the week to 11.4% of the free float, down from the 12.7% reading at the time of the previous note. The broader unwind since early May is now striking: from a peak near 95 million shares short around May 5, the position has more than halved to roughly 58 million. That's a 37% decline over the past month. Borrow conditions tell the same relaxed story. Cost to borrow has dropped to 0.54%, down more than 50% over the past month, and availability has opened up dramatically — at 421% of short interest, there are now more than four times as many shares available to lend as there are shares currently borrowed. The 52-week low on availability was 0.05%, recorded in early May when the borrow market was essentially closed. That episode is firmly in the rearview mirror.
The clearest contrarian signal this week sits in options. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.16 — the lowest reading of the past 52 weeks, running roughly 1.4 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.17. That's an unusually skewed call-heavy book. It follows a week where the stock fell 6.3% to $1.94 despite a sharp 7.8% single-day bounce on Tuesday. Options traders are leaning into further upside even as the weekly price performance turned negative. The contrast between falling short interest and a call-dominated options book points toward a market where the remaining bears are less aggressive, and some participants are actively positioning for a continuation of the bounce.
The Street is mixed, but the direction of recent analyst activity has nudged incrementally positive. After the May Q1 earnings print, Benchmark upgraded to Buy with a $2.50 target, while Citigroup — a persistent seller — raised its own target slightly to $1.20 while keeping a Sell rating. That divergence captures the fundamental tension: the bull case rests on projected 53% EBITDA growth in 2026 and a strong 2026 film slate, with net leverage expected to trend toward 7x by year-end. The bear case points to a projected adjusted EBITDA still in negative territory, declining attendance, and elevated fixed costs. The mean analyst target of $1.95 is essentially flat with the current price, suggesting the Street sees the stock as fairly valued after the month's 29% run.
CEO Adam Aron bought 250,000 shares at $1.38 on May 19, spending $344,000. That purchase stands as the only material insider buy in the 90-day window, arriving roughly six weeks before the stock traded above his entry price. It's a small stake relative to the company's size but notable as the only open-market commitment from the executive suite in the period covered.
Peer comparison underscores AMC's divergence. CNK gained 4.6% on the week and MCS added 3.3%, while AMC fell 6.3% over the same period. Both peers are exhibiting calmer, steadier price action alongside improving box office conditions — the same macro backdrop AMC is citing for its recovery thesis. The gap in weekly performance is a reminder that AMC continues to carry a different risk profile to the rest of the exhibition sector. The next scheduled catalyst is Q2 earnings, set for August 4 — and with short interest still at 11% of float, borrow conditions loose, and options positioned bullishly, the setup heading into that print will be worth watching closely.
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