ABNB has posted its mildest earnings reaction in recent memory, but the week since the print has been anything but quiet — short sellers have rebuilt positions at pace while the CEO has continued to offload stock.
The post-earnings short rebuild is the most notable development. Heading into the June 5 print, SI had fallen sharply — previous notes documented a 16% drop over seven days, with shorts at 13.7 million shares and 3.2% of the float. That cover trade has now been fully reversed. SI climbed back to 14.7 million shares by June 9, up roughly 7% on the week, pushing the float percentage back to 3.5%. The short score has ticked higher each day this week, from 35.9 to 36.9 — not an extreme reading, but a directional shift worth tracking. The borrow market offers no friction to this rebuild: availability remains extraordinarily loose at over 8,893% of short interest, and cost to borrow is a negligible 0.50%. Shorts are rebuilding cheaply and easily.
Options tell a different story from short sellers, and the contrast sharpens the picture. Pre-earnings, the put/call ratio had dropped to historically low levels as traders rotated into calls. That enthusiasm has faded. The PCR is now at 0.995, roughly 1.7 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 1.06 — still constructive relative to the recent average, but the move has reversed from the extreme bullishness that preceded the print. The 52-week low on the PCR is 0.87; at 0.995, options traders have stepped back from the most aggressive call-buying without fully rotating into protection. The stock itself is down 2.2% on the day and 2.2% on the week to $131.35, having given up the gains that briefly followed the June 5 results.
The Street remains constructive but divided on valuation. Bulls point to the company's brand expansion, Q1 performance, and a strong forward earnings momentum score — the 12-month forward EPS growth rank sits in the 98th percentile of the universe. CICC initiated coverage at Outperform with a $165 target on June 5. Earlier in the month, DA Davidson raised to $162 and Citi lifted to $175, with Wells Fargo maintaining Overweight at $181. The bears are represented by JPMorgan and Barclays, both holding neutral/equal-weight ratings — JPM's $140 target is almost exactly where the stock was trading before this week's drift lower. The mean price target of $156 implies roughly 19% upside from current levels, but Barclays' $125 target sits below the current price, signalling genuine disagreement. The EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed modestly — down about half a turn over 30 days — while PE has eased to just under 24x trailing earnings, a level the bears would argue still prices in significant growth execution.
Founder selling continues to be the ownership angle that won't go away. Brian Chesky added more tranches on June 2 and June 4-5, offloading another ~88,000 shares for roughly $11.8 million. Those sales came after the previously documented ~$14 million on June 1. Across the 90-day window, the net insider position remains a modest net buy of approximately 720,000 shares — because co-founder buying earlier in the period offsets recent trimming — but the composition has shifted. The three founders are all reducing: Gebbia sold 76,000 shares on June 1 alone for over $10 million. Chesky still holds 64 million shares, so the economic significance is small relative to his position, but the cadence of sales immediately around an earnings date is notable regardless of whether they reflect scheduled plan activity. BlackRock added roughly 433,000 shares as of May 31, providing some institutional offset.
The next earnings event is August 4. Between now and then, the question is whether the post-earnings short rebuild continues to gain momentum or fades as it did after the May spike — SI reached 16.4 million shares in mid-May before being cut nearly in half into June 5, and how that cycle plays out again will be the key positioning story to watch as summer travel data starts to flow.
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