COCO is holding near $74.22 with the short-covering story that dominated last week's note now visibly maturing — and the Street has started catching up.
The short unwind has continued, though the pace is slowing. Short interest dropped another 4.3% in a single session on June 9, bringing the float-adjusted level to 8.0% — down from a peak near 12.7% in early May. That's roughly a 37% reduction over six weeks. The borrow market tells a consistent story: availability runs at over 1,150% of outstanding short interest, meaning there are more than eleven shares available to borrow for every one currently borrowed. That's an exceptionally loose lending pool, with no squeeze mechanics in sight. Cost to borrow ticked up 14% on the week but is still only at 0.47% — firmly in "easy borrow" territory. Options positioning is similarly unthreatening, with the put/call ratio at 0.40, just fractionally above its 20-day average of 0.39. Whatever residual shorts remain are not under pressure.
The Street has moved decisively in one direction. Wells Fargo's Chris Carey lifted his target to $85 on May 18, maintaining an Overweight, after having already raised to $75 on April 30 following the earnings beat. Jefferies moved to $78 from $63 on the same day. Evercore ISI lifted to $75. The consensus target now sits at $75.11, roughly in line with the current price at $74.22 — which means the Street has largely caught up to the move rather than being out ahead of it. The bull case rests on mid-teens category growth through 2026 and retail execution momentum. Bears point to tariff exposure, rising overhead as a share of sales, and the risk that further price increases run into consumer resistance. Morgan Stanley is the notable holdout at Equal-Weight, with a $57 target that now trails the stock by a wide margin. On valuation, the stock trades at 39x trailing earnings and 27x EV/EBITDA — a premium that leaves little room for any volume softness.
The institutional picture has shifted in COCO's favour even as insiders keep selling. BlackRock added 3.1 million shares and now holds nearly 12% of the company, making it the largest disclosed holder. State Street added 681,000 shares. Wasatch built a position of 3.7 million shares, adding 1.6 million. That institutional accumulation stands in direct contrast to the insider distribution pattern noted last week — where the COO, founder, CCO, and CEO collectively sold tens of millions of dollars of stock into April and May strength. The gap between what large institutions are doing and what executives are doing is the central tension in the ownership story. The 90-day net insider figure of $27.6 million in net sales has not reversed.
Next up is the Q1 report dated June 3 — which produced only a 0.6% one-day move, a sharp contrast to the 28% surge on the late-April print. The next scheduled earnings event is August 12. Between now and then, the key variable is whether short covering continues at its recent pace or flattens out as the float-short ratio normalises toward single digits, and whether the Street's consensus target — now essentially at spot — gets revised higher or starts attracting downgrades as the valuation premium bumps against a more challenging consumer backdrop.
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