Markets Hold Steady as Iran Tensions, Inflation, and Earnings Collide

Macro in the Driver's Seat

US inflation hit 4.2% in May — a three-year high. The spike reflects energy shocks linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Despite that backdrop, futures are holding gains today. Weekly jobless claims rose to 229,000 but remain historically low. The Fed's next move is back in focus, with rate-rise risks mounting.

Oil tankers are rerouting through "dark" Strait of Hormuz transits, tightening metals and energy supply chains. Copper and aluminium had already been rallying. The war in the Middle East is now a direct input cost risk for broad markets.

Earnings and AI Spending on Tap

Adobe reports Q2 2026 results today after the close. The $96 billion software giant faces questions about AI monetisation. Oracle is drawing attention after Jim Cramer defended its $40 billion AI funding plan, pointing to a massive backlog. Analysts remain cautious, though, with 35 Hold ratings versus just six Buys.

CoreWeave is also in focus alongside Oracle as AI infrastructure spending narratives dominate tech headlines. US tech stocks sold off mid-week as volatility flared, with SPY and QQQ expiry chains stacked through June 18.

Short Sellers and Insiders Move

Bears piled into Cerebras Systems, with short interest jumping 21 percentage points to 27.7% of free float. Hertz short interest hit 45%. On insiders, Nvidia director Mark Stevens filed disclosures showing $199 million in sales near all-time highs. Silver Lake's exit from Dell topped $120 million across four days of filings.

Europe Watch

KKR launched a $10 billion data centre group led by a former AWS chief. European funds are divided on SpaceX exposure ahead of its blockbuster IPO, with sustainability disclosure rules potentially blocking €6.8 trillion in fund assets from participating.