EQNR heads into its June 16 earnings release with the lending market telling a meaningfully different story than it was just days ago.
The notable shift since the June 10 article is a reversal in borrow availability. Availability has tightened sharply — falling from the 302% level cited in the previous note to roughly 118% now. That means fewer than 1.2 shares remain available for every one already lent out, compared to three shares just days ago. The move is significant: availability compressed by more than half in under a week. Cost to borrow has ticked back up to 1.05%, recovering from the sub-0.65% levels seen in late May and early June. The borrow market, which had looked comfortable heading into the week, has tightened back toward the range that prevailed through early May. Meanwhile the stock itself has extended its slide — down 1.6% on the day and off 6% over the past month to close at $36.18, reversing some of the year-to-date outperformance flagged in recent peer notes.
Options positioning, however, does not corroborate the borrow tightening with additional bearish weight. The put/call ratio has actually eased to 0.84, a touch below its 20-day average of 0.88 and more than one standard deviation below that mean. Options traders are not piling into downside protection — the PCR sits closer to its 52-week low of 0.07 than its high of 1.62. That divergence is the most interesting tension in the current setup: the lending market is tightening while options sentiment remains relatively relaxed.
The analyst picture offers modest support. TD Cowen raised its target to $42 on June 5 — the latest in a series of upgrades from that firm — while holding a Hold rating. The consensus mean target of $37.63 sits only modestly above the current price, suggesting the Street sees limited near-term upside but is not in full retreat. Bulls point to Equinor's 2.1 million barrels per day production capacity and its structured buyback program as anchors of value. Bears flag Norway's tax structure as a compressor of free cash flow relative to peers, and a scenario of $50 Brent as a material risk to distributions. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.15 and a dividend yield factor score in the 80th percentile do provide a valuation floor, but earnings revisions — while strong over 90 days — have not yet translated into price momentum at current oil levels.
Monday's print will test whether the tightening in the borrow market reflects informed positioning ahead of a difficult quarter, or simply routine lending-pool dynamics ahead of a result that the options market seems content to treat as a non-event.
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