IonQ heads into its June 16 earnings report with the short unwind that defined the past month now sharply accelerating — and the borrow market telling a notably different story than it did just two weeks ago.
The short cover has moved from gradual to dramatic. Short interest dropped from roughly 23–24% of the free float in mid-May to 15.9% today — a fall of more than 27 million shares in under four weeks. The sharpest leg came this week alone: nearly 22% of short positions were returned in seven days, the largest weekly unwind in the trailing 30-day window. Availability has opened up meaningfully too, rising from near-zero in late May — when fewer than one share was available for every 500 borrowed — to 19.2% now. That is still tight by any normal measure, but the direction has reversed. Cost to borrow has fallen with it, easing to 0.9% from above 1.7% a month ago. Together, these moves point to orderly exit rather than panic — shorts are choosing to leave ahead of the print, not being forced out.
Options positioning, by contrast, has barely moved. The put/call ratio sits at 1.07, almost exactly in line with its 20-day average of 1.07 — a z-score near zero. Put hedgers are not adding protection despite the uncertainty of an imminent earnings release. That combination — shorts covering while options traders hold steady — suggests the market broadly expects the print to confirm, rather than disrupt, the positive narrative around quantum computing momentum.
The analyst debate frames that tension clearly. Bulls, led by Rosenblatt's $100 target (reiterated June 11) and Wedbush's $75 target raised after the last print, point to IonQ's accelerating revenue growth, SkyWater acquisition progress, and its 256-qubit development roadmap. The bear case, anchored by JP Morgan's Neutral at $50, centres on years of projected losses, dilution risk, and the possibility that a rival qubit architecture eventually captures the market. The consensus sits at Hold with a mean target near $68 — roughly 17% above the current $57.85 — reflecting a Street that broadly acknowledges the growth story while remaining cautious on the path to profitability. EPS momentum over the past 30 days ranks in the 89th percentile, but EPS surprise historically ranks near the bottom of the universe, a pairing that captures the core tension: estimates are moving up, but IonQ has a poor record of beating them.
Institutional ownership adds a further layer. Goldman Sachs added 1.68 million shares in Q1, Morgan Stanley added 767,000, and UBS added 1.6 million — meaningful accumulation from major names heading into the half. The June 16 print will test whether that institutional confidence, combined with the largest short unwind in months, reflects genuine conviction in IonQ's quantum commercialisation timeline — or simply positioning ahead of a number that the company's own track record makes hard to predict.
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