NIM heads into its May 7 results with the stock under pressure and a notable new name on the shareholder register.
Citadel Advisors filed a Schedule 13G on April 21, disclosing a fresh 2.69% stake — 6.16 million shares acquired from a standing start. That filing landed in the same week the company filed its 40-F with the SEC and debuted American Depositary Shares on Nasdaq, raising US$6 million in a U.S. offering on April 16. The Citadel entry is the standout data point this week. It is a passive filing, but the size of the position — built entirely as a new holding — is unusual for a micro-cap mining name on the TSXV, and it arrives just as Nicola broadens its U.S. investor base through the ADS listing.
Price action has been moving the other way. The stock fell 3.7% on Wednesday to CAD $0.78, extending a 7.1% weekly loss and a 16% decline over the past month. The chart shows a clean drop from the $1.25–$1.30 range hit in early April, coinciding with the Nasdaq debut. Correlated peers have also pulled back: TRX lost 16.9% on the week and SCCO dropped 10.3%, suggesting the move in NIM reflects broad sector weakness rather than a stock-specific break.
Borrow conditions tell a complicated story. Short interest remains trivially small — just 0.16% of the free float — so short sellers are not a material factor in the price move. The more interesting signal is in the lending market itself. Shares available in the borrow pool tightened sharply in mid-April, with the availability reading jumping from around 7% to more than 80% of estimated short interest in less than a week as short demand rose after the Nasdaq launch. Cost to borrow has since eased back to 3.16% from a recent peak above 5.7%, and availability has loosened to roughly 70% — conditions are less tense than a fortnight ago but still tighter than the March baseline when availability was well above 100%.
The ORTEX short score of 48.7 is middling and has been drifting lower over the past week from a recent high of 49.7. The days-to-cover rank of 76 (out of 100) is the most elevated factor score in the snapshot, reflecting the relatively thin trading volume against borrowed shares. EPS surprise ranks in just the 12th percentile, and the single analyst price target on record — CAD $1.60, last updated in October 2025 — implies meaningful upside from current levels, though the age of that estimate limits how much weight it can carry.
The most recent insider activity worth noting is a small open-market purchase by Corporate Secretary William Cawker in late January at CAD $0.90, a price now above the current level. The CFO exercised and immediately sold shares in December in a paired award-and-sale, which is routine. Net insider flows over the past 90 days are modestly positive at around CAD $149,000, though the data only runs to end of January.
With earnings confirmed for May 7, the next session that matters is the print itself. Recent history gives a mixed guide: the September 2025 release produced a 9.3% one-day gain before a 32% five-day run, while the December event moved the stock just 2% lower on the day. What to watch is whether the ADS listing and U.S. capital raise translate into any operational update — and whether Citadel's stake has grown beyond the April 21 snapshot.
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