Gold Royalty Corp. heads into its June 18 earnings release with options positioning at its most bullish extreme of the past year.
The clearest pre-earnings signal comes from the options market, where call demand has surged to an unusual degree. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.16, more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.33 — the lowest reading of the past 52 weeks. That flip happened abruptly: the PCR held near 0.36 for most of May before dropping sharply to 0.16 over the last three sessions. Whatever is driving that rotation, options traders are leaning more aggressively toward upside than at any point in the past year. Short interest, meanwhile, tells a quieter story — bears have been covering. SI has fallen roughly 5% over the past week to 4.1% of the free float, with the borrow market remaining wide open: availability runs at 441%, and borrowing costs have eased to under 0.7%, well below the 1.3% peak touched in early May.
The bull case rests on gold prices and portfolio ramp-ups. GROY reported an average realized gold price of $3,279 — up 40% year-over-year — and the market is watching whether contributions from Côté Gold and the Borborema development can finally translate that price tailwind into sustained positive earnings. HC Wainwright raised its target to $7.75 after the last print in early May, while Canaccord upgraded to Buy at the same time, both moves suggesting analysts see the second half of 2026 as the inflection point. Against a current price of $2.98, the consensus mean target of $6.00 implies substantial upside — though valuation multiples are not the story here. EV/EBITDA has contracted by about 1 point over the past month to 16.4x, and the price-to-book sits below 0.9x, reflecting the market's ongoing skepticism that the royalty portfolio will deliver at scale. Bears point to a net loss of $0.8 million last quarter on only $3.8 million in revenue — profitability remains elusive despite the gold price windfall.
The ownership structure adds an unusual dimension. Tether Holdings holds 12.3% of shares and added over 31 million shares as recently as May 6, making it the largest single holder by a wide margin. Its aggressive accumulation — more than $12 million of net buying in the 90 days to May 6 — dwarfs anything else in the insider register and represents a concentrated bet on the royalty model at a price well above where the stock trades today.
Thursday's print is therefore a test of whether Borborema and Côté Gold momentum is building fast enough to justify both the institutional confidence of recent buyers and the sharp pivot in options sentiment.
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