Aeva Technologies reports tomorrow afternoon carrying a short position that, while still elevated, has been steadily unwinding — a dynamic that sets an interesting backdrop for a stock that fell 11% on Tuesday alone.
Short sellers hold 11.5% of the free float, a level that qualifies as meaningfully high. But the direction has been decisively lower: that figure has dropped nearly 20% over the past month, with roughly 1.7 million shares of short interest coming off since early May. The unwind accelerated sharply at the end of May, when availability tightened to just 14% — meaning only one share was available to borrow for every seven already lent out. Today that pressure has fully reversed. Availability now reads 234%, with plenty of lending supply relative to outstanding shorts, and cost to borrow has halved since May to under 0.5%. The borrow market is relaxed heading into the print.
Options traders are not particularly anxious either. The put/call ratio is running at 0.26, just below its 20-day average of 0.27 and well off the one-year high of 0.79. That call-heavy skew suggests positioning is leaning constructive — or at minimum, that downside hedging is notably absent ahead of the release. The stock's 11% single-day drop Tuesday, which reversed part of a 17% one-month gain, did not appear to trigger a defensive repositioning in the options market.
The bull-bear debate is really a question of timeline. Bulls point to a Daimler Trucks partnership that diversifies revenue beyond passenger vehicles, and long-run projections of LiDAR revenue growing from roughly $100 million in 2028 to $1.8 billion by 2035. Three analysts carry buy ratings, with a consensus target of $25.13 — modest upside from the current $23.93. The ORTEX EPS surprise factor score, at the 80th percentile, suggests the company has a track record of beating estimates. Bears focus on the industry's structural problems: Luminar's loan default and the collapse of its Volvo partnership illustrate how quickly commercial momentum can reverse in this space, and slower-than-expected autonomous vehicle adoption timelines remain a live risk.
Insider flow adds a cautionary note. The CEO, Chairman, and CFO all sold shares in early May at prices between $15 and $15.05 — well below Tuesday's close. Net insider sales over the past 90 days total roughly $1.6 million. That selling happened at significantly lower prices than where the stock now trades, limiting its immediate read-through, but the absence of any buying against a 60%-plus stock rally over the past month is worth noting.
Tomorrow's print will test whether Aeva can demonstrate tangible commercial progress — particularly on the Daimler relationship — that justifies a stock price nearly 60% above where insiders were trimming just six weeks ago.
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