MBLY heads into tomorrow's earnings release with bears on the back foot — short interest falling, borrow loose, and options traders the least defensive they've been all year.
Short sellers have been cutting exposure into the print. Short interest has dropped roughly 11% over the past month to 13% of the free float, with the steepest leg lower coming in the week of June 8 when around 1.7 million shares of short positions were covered in a single session. Borrow remains cheap at 0.46% annually — well within normal ranges — and availability is running at 159%, meaning lenders still have more shares on offer than are currently borrowed. That combination points to a lending market with no stress whatsoever. Options confirm the direction: the put/call ratio is sitting at 0.37, near its 52-week low of 0.33, and fractionally below its 20-day average. There is no meaningful demand for downside protection heading into the release.
The bull-bear debate is genuinely divided. Bulls point to Mobileye's $24.5 billion forward revenue pipeline, deepening OEM partnerships, the Mentee Robotics acquisition, and a sharp upward revision in forward earnings estimates — with EPS momentum ranking in the 76th percentile across the universe. Bears counter that revenue growth has disappointed, gross margins are under pressure, and profitability remains distant: the company's EV/EBIT is deeply negative, and momentum across every medium-term price window has underperformed the broader market. Analyst consensus is a lukewarm hold, with the mean price target around $13.29 against a current price of $9.62, suggesting the Street sees room higher but lacks conviction. Most of the analyst activity followed the April print — Goldman and JPMorgan both trimmed and then lifted targets in rapid succession, capturing the Street's uncertainty in miniature.
The April earnings release offers useful context on how volatile these prints can be. After its most recent results — reported April 23 — MBLY surged 16.8% on the day and held on to a 10% gain over the following week. That kind of outsized move is the pattern, not the exception, and with the short score sitting at a relatively elevated 68.5 and 13% of the float still short, any upside surprise carries real covering pressure from a meaningful residual short base.
The print will test whether Mobileye's forward revenue story can survive contact with near-term execution — and whether the recent short-covering marks genuine belief in a recovery or simply tactical risk reduction ahead of a historically explosive event.
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