MARA heads into its June 18 earnings report carrying one of the heaviest short positions in the bitcoin mining sector — but the borrow market is quietly loosening, creating a more complex setup than the headline short figure suggests.
Short interest has been remarkably sticky, running at roughly 25% of the free float for weeks. That level places MARA in the bottom 7th percentile for short score rank across the broader universe — a signal that bearish positioning is genuinely extreme, not marginal. Yet the lending market tells a story of easing pressure. Availability has climbed sharply from near-zero in mid-May — when shares available to borrow were fully exhausted — to 42% of short interest as of June 15. That represents a near-doubling in a week. Cost to borrow has ticked up 31% over the same period to 0.79%, but remains low in absolute terms. Taken together, the setup is one of high but slightly retreating short conviction: shorts are not covering in size, but the squeeze risk that characterised May has materially diminished.
Options positioning adds a bullish tilt to the picture. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.74, more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average — the most call-heavy reading in months. That diverges from the short interest signal: options traders are leaning into upside, while short sellers are holding their ground. The stock itself has rallied 8% over the past week to $14.42, outpacing close peers and , which gained roughly 8% apiece, though it trailed , which surged 16%.
The analyst community is split in a way that mirrors the broader uncertainty. Morgan Stanley holds an Underweight with a $7 target — well below the current price — while BTIG maintains a Buy at $27. Rosenblatt raised its target to $15 in May, roughly in line with where the stock trades now. The bull case centres on MARA's Long Ridge energy acquisition, which adds power capacity and a path toward higher-margin HPC revenues. Bears focus on the multi-year gap before HPC generates meaningful income and the company's persistent earnings quality weakness — negative free cash flow, a low Piotroski F-Score, and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 137x that leaves little room for execution shortfalls. One cautionary note from the corporate side: the CEO, CFO, and General Counsel all sold shares in April and May at prices between $11.46 and $12.00, below the current level, though the sizes were modest and may reflect pre-arranged trading plans.
The print tomorrow will test whether MARA's Q1 mining output and any HPC revenue update justify a stock that has re-rated 16% higher over the past month while a quarter of its float remains in short hands.
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