NVIDIA pulled back 2.4% on Tuesday to $207.41 — reversing a chunk of Monday's triple-witching bounce — arriving at the final week before its June 24 earnings print with a familiar tension: a stock that keeps slipping and a fundamental picture that hasn't changed.
The giveback matters in context. The June 15 session produced a 3.5% single-day gain that broke a three-week drift. Tuesday erased roughly two-thirds of that move. The stock is down 8% over the past month, and the weekly read has flattened to roughly flat after briefly turning positive. Peer pressure didn't help: AVGO fell 4.4% on the day and AMD dropped 7.3%, suggesting the move was sector-wide rather than NVIDIA-specific. That context softens the signal, but the pattern — rally, fade, rally, fade — has now repeated often enough to be the story in its own right.
The lending and options markets offer no drama to explain the drift. Short interest holds at roughly 1.2% of the free float, essentially unmoved for months and still negligible. Borrow costs have fallen sharply — down more than 20% on the week to just 0.19% — and share availability is effectively unlimited, meaning there is no squeeze pressure and no meaningful bearish structural position being built. Options positioning has calmed after a brief spike: the put/call ratio hit 1.017 on Monday — the 52-week high — before falling back to 0.86 on Tuesday, essentially in line with the 20-day average of 0.85. The z-score is near zero. Whatever the Monday spike reflected, it didn't persist. Overall, positioning carries no structural weight in either direction; the story is entirely in the fundamentals and the earnings setup.
The Street's conviction remains unusually high and has not softened. The analyst recommendation differential ranks in the 99th percentile — virtually no covered name carries a more lopsided buy-to-sell ratio. The consensus mean target of roughly $299 implies more than 44% upside from Tuesday's close. That gap has widened, not narrowed, as the stock has drifted. Valuation multiples have compressed meaningfully: the trailing P/E has fallen to around 19.4x, down nearly 4 points over the past month, and EV/EBITDA has eased to 15.9x. The bull case — CUDA moat, locked-in data-centre spend, a capex cycle that shows no sign of plateauing — is unchanged. The bear case remains a valuation argument that grows harder to make as multiples compress. The EPS momentum factor ranks in the 90th percentile on a 30-day basis, and the ORTEX composite score, while fractionally off its June 16 peak of 83.9, remains near the top of its six-month range.
One angle worth watching on the ownership side: independent director Mark Stevens sold one million shares across two days in early June, collecting roughly $110 million at prices between $217 and $222. That came as the stock was trading above its current level. The transactions are individually disclosed and carry only moderate significance scores, but the timing — ahead of a major earnings event, at prices now above where the stock trades — is worth noting without over-reading. CEO Jensen Huang holds 3.56% of outstanding shares and has not appeared in recent trade disclosures.
The two historical earnings reactions on record both closed in the red: a 3.6% next-day decline following the May 21 print, and a five-day loss of 4.1%. Neither move was catastrophic for a name of this size, but both went the same direction. The upcoming June 24 print is therefore less about whether NVIDIA is growing — it clearly is — and more about whether guidance and datacenter commentary are strong enough to finally close the gap between where the stock trades and where forty-nine analysts think it belongs.
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