QCOM Rebounds but Shorts Rebuild Ahead of June 24 Earnings

QUALCOMM has recovered 4.2% on the week to $214.07, reversing part of last week's steep 15% selloff — but the short position that was unwinding has quietly started rebuilding, and options traders remain more defensive than usual with earnings now just days away.

The most notable shift since last week's note is that short interest has reversed its decline. The short position has climbed back to 4.0% of the free float, up from the 3.65% level flagged in the previous note, with a 4% single-day increase on June 16 alone. That reverses part of the sharp unwind that had been the story through early June. The borrow market remains untroubled — cost to borrow is just 0.55%, up 16% on the week but still firmly in low territory, and availability is an extraordinarily loose 3,075% of current short interest. The lending pool is not under any stress, but the direction of the short position has flipped from contraction to expansion. Options positioning has eased modestly from last week's extremes: the put/call ratio has come in to 0.88 from 0.92, now running about 0.6 standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.84. That is less alarming than the 1.6 standard-deviation reading flagged a week ago, but it still sits in the upper half of the past year's range, with the 52-week high at 1.09. Protective demand has not gone away — it has just stopped intensifying.

The Street tells a divided story. Wells Fargo's Aaron Rakers raised his target from $160 to $230 on June 12 while holding an Equal-Weight rating — a notable upward revision from a neutral stance, and the most recent bellwether action. The broader analyst picture is less constructive: the consensus mean target is $180, a meaningful discount to the current price of $214. Most of the post-April-earnings target lifts — from JPMorgan at $160, UBS at $170, Citigroup at $160 — still sit well below where the stock is trading. The bull case centres on Qualcomm's AI-enabled connectivity roadmap, IoT diversification, and resilient Android modem demand; the bear case points to data centre execution risk and uncertainty around a new hyperscaler deal. On valuation, the P/E has expanded to roughly 19.9x and EV/EBITDA has drifted to 15.7x. The forward earnings yield of about 5% and the dividend score ranking in the 99th percentile give income-oriented holders a reason to stay patient, while EV/EBIT scores in the 88th percentile suggests the stock is not obviously expensive relative to operating earnings. Analyst recommendation divergence ranks in the 94th percentile, reflecting just how wide the bull-bear spread has become heading into the print.

Among peers, the week's session-by-session action was broadly similar in direction on Tuesday — AMD fell 7.3%, SWKS dropped 6.3%, QRVO lost 4.7% — suggesting sector-wide pressure rather than anything QCOM-specific. On the week, MXL surged 16% and SIMO gained 8.8%, outpacing QCOM's 4.2% advance and echoing last week's pattern of idiosyncratic momentum favouring names with sharper near-term catalysts.

The June 24 earnings print is the only number that matters now. The last comparable event, the April 29 release, sent the stock up 19.7% on the day and 28.4% over the five sessions that followed. Whether the positioning setup — short interest rebuilding, options still modestly defensive, the Street's consensus target sitting 16% below the current price — resolves in the same direction or reverses it is the question the market spends the next week pricing.