RTX heads into its July 21 Q2 earnings window with short sellers quietly rebuilding positions into a stock that has continued to grind higher — a tension worth watching as the calendar tightens.
The most striking data point this week is how aggressively short interest has moved against the price trend. Short positions have climbed nearly 20% over the past month to 1.4% of free float — still a low absolute level, but the pace of accumulation is notable. From roughly 13.4 million shares short at the start of May, positions have risen to 18.9 million, with the bulk of that build concentrated in the last two weeks of June. The direction is clear even if the conviction level remains modest. Yet the lending market tells a completely different story: borrow availability is essentially unlimited, with nearly 890 million shares available to lend. Cost to borrow has more than doubled over the past month but remains trivially cheap at 0.39% annually. There is no mechanical squeeze pressure here. This is incremental directional positioning, not a crowded short.
Options traders are leaning the opposite way. The put/call ratio has eased to 0.70, slightly below its 20-day average of 0.72 — a mild but clear tilt toward calls rather than downside protection. That's a contrast with the more defensive readings seen in late May and early June, when the PCR briefly touched 0.85. The short score has nudged higher through the week, reaching 32.5 on June 16 from 31.0 a week earlier, but remains well within the neutral range. Factor scores reflect a stock the market respects but doesn't fear: the analyst recommendation differential ranks in the 93rd percentile, the dividend score in the 95th, while the value rank (EV/EBIT in the 34th percentile) signals the Street knows it is paying up.
The Street has largely settled into a cautious constructive stance. Following the Jefferies upgrade to Buy on June 4 — covered in the previous note — the consensus now holds at 4 outperforms and 8 holds, with no outright sells. Targets cluster in the $199–$230 range, implying mid-to-high single digit upside from the current $186.77. The P/E has expanded to 25.9x and EV/EBITDA to 17.4x as the stock has risen 9% over the past month, both modestly higher than where they sat last week but not yet alarming for a defense franchise of this quality. Bulls are focused on Pratt & Whitney's aftermarket engine demand and the acceleration in both commercial and defense revenue. Bears keep pointing to the economics of new GTF engine deliveries and unresolved procurement timing risk. The powder metal issue and AOG backlog remain open items heading into Q2 disclosure.
Among close peers, LMT and NOC both posted more restrained weekly gains of around 1%, while GE outperformed with a 6.4% weekly advance. VSEC was the outlier, surging 11.5% on the week on idiosyncratic news. RTX's 2.9% weekly move therefore sits comfortably in the middle of the peer pack — sector tailwinds are lifting all boats, but RTX isn't the standout mover in either direction.
The earnings print on July 21 will be the next hard test. RTX fell 7.6% on the day of Q1 results in April and extended losses to -10.3% over the following week — the sharpest one-day reaction in the recent history. The prior quarter saw only a 0.7% day-one move. With the stock now 9% higher than where it sat heading into Q1 and short sellers adding incrementally into the rally, the July print will determine whether that rebuilding short interest was early or well-timed.
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