SoFi Bears Hold Firm After Earnings Day Passes

SoFi Technologies has cleared its June 17 earnings event with the stock up sharply on the week — yet short sellers have not blinked, leaving a loaded positioning picture heading into the next quarterly print on July 27.

The short-interest story is the central tension. Bears held their ground through last week's 7.5% rally to $17.71, with SI running at 15.7% of the free float — essentially flat from the 15.9% peak flagged in the June 10 note. That persistence is notable: the stock has gained 13.5% over the past month, and the short base has grown alongside it rather than capitulating. The ORTEX short score, at 66.9, remains close to its recent ceiling and ranks in just the 6th percentile on a universe-wide basis — a reading that flags this as one of the more heavily shorted names in the market. Short sellers added approximately 14% to their positions over the past month in aggregate.

Borrow conditions tell a more nuanced story than the June 10 note described. Availability loosened sharply on June 16, reading 97% — nearly double the 79.6% trough touched on June 9, which was the tightest level of the past year. That easing means there is now roughly one share available for every one already borrowed, compared with less than one share per 1.25 borrowed at last week's tightest. The relief is real, but availability remains well below the 130–186% range that prevailed through late May. Cost to borrow has drifted lower to 0.47%, down 8% on the week, so there is no mechanical squeeze pressure forcing covers. Options positioning has edged more defensive: the put/call ratio hit 0.48 on June 16, more than two standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.43 — the highest relative reading in recent months — suggesting options traders are hedging into the next catalyst window even as the stock rallied.

The Street has a cautious tilt, though a meaningful minority remain constructive. Most of the recent analyst actions came in late April and early May following the Q1 print, which saw the stock drop 12% on the day and another 11% over the following week. Citigroup and Needham maintained Buy ratings while cutting targets. Goldman Sachs and UBS held Neutral, both reducing targets to the low $20s. Truist moved to $17 — the only target sitting below the current price. The consensus mean sits at $20.90 against $17.71, a gap of roughly 18%. Bulls point to 34% revenue growth and expanding net interest income. Bears focus on credit quality risk in a slower growth environment and structural competition in the neobank space. The price-to-book multiple has expanded about 9% over the past month to 1.9x, reflecting the stock's recovery, while the PE of 25.5x prices in continued earnings delivery.

On the ownership side, CEO Anthony Noto made a small open-market purchase of 13,888 shares at $18.06 on June 16 — $251,000 worth. The trade has a significance score of 3 out of 10, so it reads more as a routine signal of alignment than a conviction statement. Noto already holds nearly 12 million shares. More notable is UBS Asset Management, which added 21.6 million shares in the quarter ending April 30, lifting its stake to 3.2% of the company — a material accumulation that runs counter to the broader analyst caution at the firm's research desk.

Peer moves on the week were broadly constructive for consumer finance: LC gained nearly 8%, UPST added 3.8%, and DAVE climbed 7.1%. SoFi's 7.5% weekly gain sits in the middle of that pack — solid but not standout relative to the group.

The next focal point is the July 27 Q1 results, where the last comparable print produced a 12% single-day drop; how the still-elevated short base and recovering stock price interact into that release is what the market will be calibrating over the next six weeks.