AUR shorts cover as Street turns bullish — but Uber's exit looms large

The Street's recent moves paint a more constructive picture, though with real internal disagreement. Two initiations in the past six weeks led with optimism: Craig-Hallum opened coverage with a Buy and a $18 target on June 5, while Northland Capital Markets initiated at Outperform with an $11 target in late May. Those sit well above the current $6.14 price. Goldman Sachs, however, maintained its Neutral rating in April with a $5 target — barely above current levels and a signal that at least one bellwether sees limited near-term upside. TD Cowen holds at Hold with a $7 target. The consensus buy rating and mean target of $11.22 imply theoretical upside of around 83%, but the target range ($5–$18) is wide enough to be almost unhelpful. The bull case centres on Aurora's second-generation autonomous kit cutting hardware costs by more than 50%, OEM partnerships in Class 8 trucks, and a stated path to gross profit positivity by late 2026. Bears point to $1 million in quarterly revenue against $217 million in operating expenses — a burn rate that demands continued capital market access to stay viable. The ORTEX analyst recommendation divergence score ranks in the 99th percentile, meaning the gap between the most bullish and most bearish Street views on AUR is wider than virtually any other stock in the universe.

The most consequential development in the ownership register is Uber's exit. UBER sold 67.5 million shares on June 2 at $7.10 — a $479 million disposal that cut its stake from roughly 19% to 13.2%. That transaction directly explains the jump in short interest shares earlier this month and the availability loosening: a block that size floods the lending pool. T. Rowe Price remains the largest institutional holder with a 15.1% stake and, notably, added 160 million shares in the period ending May 31 — a very large incremental position that represents real conviction. Director David Wehner bought 82,500 shares on June 11 at $6.04, a modest purchase in dollar terms ($498k) but notable as the only insider buy in a tape otherwise dominated by selling. Reid Hoffman's venture vehicle sold several tranches around $7.27–$7.51 in May, and the President and CFO both executed sales in late May as well. Net insider activity over 90 days shows a positive share count (driven almost entirely by the Uber block being classified under insider reporting) but the directional read from management-level sellers is cautious.

The earnings history adds a useful data point for framing July 29. AUR's Q1 2026 result on May 6 produced a 9.3% single-day gain and a 28.6% five-day move — a significant beat-and-rally reaction that explains much of May's short covering. The subsequent reversal to current levels, down from a post-earnings peak, reflects the market reasserting its view that the fundamental story (near-zero revenue, heavy cash burn) hasn't changed. The prior event on May 21 saw a negligible -0.7% move, suggesting the May 6 reaction was the outlier, not the baseline.

What to watch into July 29: whether T. Rowe Price's large incremental position represents a floor for the stock, whether Uber continues selling down its remaining 13% stake, and whether Aurora delivers any update on gross margin trajectory that would give the Craig-Hallum $18 bull case something concrete to anchor to.