RDW heads into mid-June with a striking disconnect: short interest has jumped 20% in a week while the stock's biggest backer has been systematically walking out the door.
The dominant story here is the insider selling. AE Industrial Partners, a 10% owner with board representation, has sold more than $460 million worth of stock since mid-April across a steady series of transactions. The most recent came on June 11, when the firm sold roughly 1.1 million shares at $21.48 — well above the current price of $13.50. That the sponsor was selling at prices materially above where the stock trades today underlines how sharply sentiment has turned. Net insider disposals over the past 90 days total over 61 million shares, a significant overhang that coincides almost exactly with the acceleration in short positioning.
Short interest has become the clearest expression of that pressure. At 22.6% of free float — up from roughly 16% a month ago and 34% higher than four weeks prior — bears have built a meaningful position. The week-on-week jump of 20% is among the sharpest in the stock's recent history. Yet the borrow market itself is not particularly hostile to new shorts. Availability has actually loosened dramatically over the past two weeks, climbing from below 103% in late May to 134% now, meaning there is ample room to borrow relative to shares already lent. Cost to borrow, despite a 76% weekly uptick, remains low at just 0.43% — effectively zero friction for a would-be short seller. The ORTEX short score has crept up to 63.7, its highest reading in the observed window, with the trend moving steadily higher each session this week. Options positioning adds a mild counterpoint: the put/call ratio of 0.50 is actually a touch below its 20-day average of 0.54, suggesting options traders are not yet layering on aggressive downside protection alongside the growing short base.
The analyst community is more cautious than the raw consensus rating of "Buy" implies. Jefferies' Greg Konrad downgraded the stock to Hold on June 1 — the most recent action — even while raising his price target from $13 to $24. That combination of target increase and rating cut is a signal of directional uncertainty rather than conviction either way. The mean price target across nine analysts sits at $15.67, a modest 16% above current levels, but the range is wide: Canaccord Genuity is at $14, Truist at $15, while older targets from HC Wainwright ($22) and Cantor Fitzgerald ($9) reflect how varied the Street's views have been. Factor scores reinforce the caution: the short score ranks in just the 6th percentile of the universe, EPS momentum over 30 and 90 days ranks in the 10th and 18th percentiles respectively, and quality remains the weakest structural pillar with negative ROA and FCF. The one genuine bull signal is EPS surprise, which ranks in the 94th percentile — Redwire has consistently beaten estimates even when the underlying business has been loss-making.
BlackRock added 5.1 million shares through May 31, bringing its position to 5.6% of shares outstanding — the largest reported institutional build in recent filings. State Street and Van Eck also added meaningfully. That institutional accumulation sets up an interesting tug-of-war with the sponsor exit: passive and active managers are buying what AE Industrial is selling.
The peer group offers little comfort for bulls this week. LUNR fell 15% and MNTS dropped 27%, making RDW's 14% weekly decline look almost contained by comparison. RKLB held better at -3%, suggesting the broad space sector is under pressure rather than any single name. The next earnings date is August 6 — and Redwire's recent track record on those prints is notable: the last four reports each produced double-digit positive moves on the day, with the May 2026 print delivering a 32% single-session gain and a 53% five-day rally. Whether the current short buildup reflects genuine fundamental deterioration or a positioning overshoot ahead of that catalyst is the question the market will be working through between now and then.
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