KLAR heads into its June 22 earnings print with shorts pulling back from recent highs, borrow conditions tightening, and analysts nudging targets higher — a setup where the direction of travel matters more than any single data point.
The most telling tension this week sits in the lending market. Availability has loosened slightly to 23%, up from a low of around 5% in early June, but remains firmly in tight territory — fewer than one share is available to borrow for every four already lent out. The 52-week floor hit 1.4%, so the current reading is well off peak tightness, yet the direction of availability improvement has coincided with short interest declining. Shorts outstanding have fallen roughly 5.5% over the week to 8.3% of the free float, erasing some of the build that pushed the figure above 8% through late May and early June. Cost to borrow has also eased from a mid-week spike near 3.8% back to 2.4% — still 38% higher than seven days ago — suggesting lenders demanded a premium as the squeeze pressure briefly intensified. The ORTEX short score of 73.9 keeps KLAR in the top few percentiles of short-side conviction across the market, even as the immediate borrowing pressure has softened from its most extreme readings.
Options traders are not adding much caution to the picture. The put/call ratio runs at 0.66, barely a standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.64 — well within normal range and far from the defensive extremes (the 52-week high touched 1.33). Call open interest still outweighs puts by a wide margin, suggesting that options positioning skews bullish heading into the print rather than defensively positioned. The combination of easing short interest and call-leaning options flow makes the overall positioning picture less charged than the elevated short score alone might imply.
Analyst direction has been broadly constructive since the May earnings release. BofA raised its target to $23 while holding a Buy rating. Goldman maintained its Buy, lifting its target to $21. Keefe Bruyette moved to $26, the highest on the Street. Morgan Stanley sits more cautiously at $18 with an Equal-Weight. The mean consensus target of around $23 implies roughly 30% upside from the current $17.78 close, though the range is wide — BMO and TD Cowen both sit at or below the current price with neutral-to-hold stances. The bull case rests on continued BNPL market expansion (the US market is projected at $117 billion in payment value this year) and tightening charge-offs. Bears point to declining GMV per merchant as newer, smaller PSP partnerships dilute the mix, a dynamic that has been playing out for several quarters. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5x has barely moved over the past month, suggesting the market is waiting for execution evidence rather than rewarding the growth narrative in advance.
The earnings reaction history is short but notable. The May 14 print produced a one-day move of almost 11%, extending to 16% over five days — a sharp jump that came after the company's first significant post-IPO results. The May 19 event recorded a more modest 3.5% initial move, expanding to 9% over the week. Neither reaction followed options implied moves closely, and the sample is too thin to anchor expectations, but both showed the stock can move materially in either direction on new information. Closest peer AFRM rallied 14.7% on the week and ADYEN gained 8.2%, providing a constructive fintech backdrop heading into the release.
The June 22 print is therefore less about whether Klarna is growing — analysts broadly agree it is — and more about whether GMV per merchant stabilises, and whether charge-off discipline holds as the US book scales.
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