CHA has spent the past month quietly building a bull case — up 17% — while a more ambiguous signal emerges this week: short sellers are rebuilding positions at speed, even as the stock's borrow market remains far from stressed.
The short interest story is the week's sharpest tension. Estimated shares short rose 42% over the past week to roughly 1.03 million, and they are up 35% over the past month. That kind of acceleration in positioning is worth flagging, particularly against a stock that is simultaneously rallying. The FINRA fortnightly figure, which settled at 1.05 million shares as of late May, broadly confirms the trend. Yet the borrow market tells a different story entirely. Availability is ample — around 470% of shares short, meaning nearly five shares are available to borrow for every one already lent out. Cost to borrow has actually eased, running at 1.6% annually, down from roughly 1.9% a week ago and from above 2.5% in mid-May. Shorts are building, but they are doing so in a fully liquid lending pool with no squeeze pressure in sight. The ORTEX short score sits at 44.9, well into neutral territory — consistent with a stock where positioning is rising but not yet at a level that would typically characterise a high-conviction short thesis.
The analyst picture is genuinely complicated, and the mean price target of $105 carries a significant caveat: it almost certainly reflects stale initiations from mid-2025 — Citi at $43.70, Morgan Stanley at $37.50, CICC at $41.50 — that predate a sharp derating in the stock. With CHA trading at $11.52, those figures are almost certainly misaligned with the current listing structure or price level, and should not be read at face value. The actionable analyst data is more recent and more cautious. CLSA initiated coverage on June 1 with a Hold and a $10 target, effectively in line with the current price. JP Morgan upgraded to Overweight in early April with a $16 target — the highest credible figure on the board — but even that implies only about 39% upside from here. The EPS surprise factor score of 96 is a genuine bright spot, suggesting the company has beaten estimates convincingly, and the EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.5x and PE of 7.2x place CHA at a meaningful discount to most consumer-facing peers. The bull case rests on valuation and execution; the bear case centres on whether a Chinese tea-beverage operator can sustain margins and growth as its US-listed vehicle finds its footing.
Ownership is heavily concentrated and relatively static. Founder Junjie Zhang holds 34% of shares, XVC Venture Capital 18%, and Shenzhen Congbi Qiushi a further 9%. Together, the top three holders account for more than 60% of the float — a structure that leaves relatively little free float for institutional rotation. Marshall Wace added a notable 1.4 million shares in the most recent reporting period, bringing its stake to just under 1% of shares outstanding. That is a small but directional signal from a firm known for data-driven positioning, and it runs contrary to the short-sellers who have been adding exposure this week. Athos Capital and UBS Asset Management also added to positions in the quarter, though at smaller scale.
The last earnings print delivered a sharp reaction. The stock jumped almost 30% the day after the May 29 result, and held 13.6% of that gain over the following five days — a pattern that suggests the market was positioned too defensively going into the release. The next earnings date is August 28. Between now and then, the most relevant dynamic to track is whether the current short-building continues as the stock holds its monthly gains, or whether the acceleration in borrowed shares stalls as sellers find the rally harder to fade.
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