SATS enters the back half of June with an unfamiliar dynamic: the stock is falling, but the data behind it tells a story of disengaged bears and a valuation that is quietly compressing.
The price action is the headline this week. SATS has dropped 4.4% in a single session and 3.8% across the week, extending a one-month slide of nearly 7% to NOK 40.10. That move takes the stock further below the analyst consensus target of NOK 46.50 — implying roughly 16% upside from current levels — and pushes the PE multiple down to 13.0x, off more than a full turn over the past month. EV/EBITDA has also drifted lower to 6.0x. The valuation case for bulls is getting incrementally more attractive with each down day; the question is what closes the gap.
What makes the setup unusual is that the short-side machinery is essentially idle. Cost to borrow has collapsed — from 9% in late April to just 1.6% now, a fall of more than 57% in one week alone and nearly 78% over the past month. Availability is uncapped by any practical measure, with over 28 million shares in the lending pool and a utilisation rate barely above a quarter of a percent. The ORTEX short score has nudged higher to 28.9 this week — up from a recent low of 25.8 on June 15 — but it still ranks in the 96th percentile for how benign short positioning looks. The sell-off, in other words, is not short sellers piling in. It looks more like holders reducing exposure into weakness.
The institutional picture complicates that read. As recently as late April, several Nordic managers were actively building. Storebrand Asset Management added 3.6 million shares, ODIN Forvaltning initiated a 4.7 million share position, and Alfred Berg Kapitalforvaltning added 3.3 million — all reported in the same filing window. That buying interest now sits against a stock trading 7% lower than when those positions were built. Whether those same managers view the current level as an opportunity to add further, or whether the recent selling reflects some of that institutional rotation reversing, is not yet visible in the data. The next filing round will be telling.
The factor picture offers one genuinely positive anchor. SATS ranks in the 93rd percentile on dividend yield — the DPS/price ratio has ticked up to 4.9% as the price has fallen — and in the 83rd percentile on days-to-cover. EPS momentum scores are softer, ranking in the 25th to 40th percentile range over 30 and 90 days, and the forward earnings growth score is in the 30th percentile. The Street's mean target has not moved materially, but there are no recent analyst revisions to cite from the past two weeks. The next scheduled earnings event is August 14, which gives the stock roughly eight weeks to find a floor or continue drifting.
With cost to borrow now at its lowest level since the data history begins, availability maxed out, and a short score that remains benign despite inching higher, the week's decline looks driven by holders rather than new bears — and the August earnings print is now the clearest near-term event for either side to trade around.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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