Martin Marietta Materials enters the final week of June with a striking disconnect: the stock is up nearly 8% on the week and 10% on the month, yet short interest has climbed 44% in the past 30 days — a quiet but persistent bet against the rally.
The price action has been emphatic. MLM closed at $609.12 on Thursday, a 3% single-day gain capping a strong week. Closest peer Vulcan Materials rose 8% on the week, while TTAM added 11% — suggesting a broad sector tailwind rather than a company-specific catalyst. The construction materials group has caught a bid, and MLM has moved with it.
The short interest story runs counter to that momentum. Shorts have rebuilt steadily since mid-May, with the position growing from roughly 1.4 million shares to just over 2 million — now 3.4% of the free float. That's a 44% increase in one month. The pace of accumulation picked up sharply after June 8, when shares short jumped from 1.8 million to just under 2.1 million over two weeks. Cost to borrow has risen in parallel, up 29% on the week to 0.53%, though it remains unambiguously cheap in absolute terms. Availability, however, is extremely loose at 1,835% — nearly 37.5 million shares are available to borrow relative to the current short position, meaning there is no squeeze pressure and no borrow constraint on new shorts. This is a stock that is very easy to short if you want to.
Options positioning actually contradicts the rebuilding short book, tilting toward the bullish side. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.59, running well below its 20-day average of 0.68 — about 1.3 standard deviations below the mean. That's closer to the 52-week low of 0.32 than the 52-week high of 1.33, and it reflects call-heavy activity consistent with a market that's chasing the rally rather than hedging against it. The setup is unusual: options traders are positioned for more upside while short sellers are quietly adding to their positions at a month-long clip.
On the Street, the picture is mixed but leans constructive. Multiple analysts maintained Buy ratings after Q1 results in early May, with Truist nudging its target to $730 and Citigroup holding at $731 despite cutting from $804 — both targets comfortably above the current price. RBC sits more cautiously at $615, roughly where the stock is now. The broader consensus skews toward outperform, though Oppenheimer's late-May initiation at Perform adds a neutral voice. The bull case rests on the 17% year-over-year surge in aggregates revenue, the 8% combined volume and pricing gains, and raised 2025 and preliminary 2026 guidance. Bears push back on the "value over volume" strategy in lower-margin markets, heavy exposure to a handful of US states, and a valuation that, at 28.9x trailing earnings and 16.7x EV/EBITDA, leaves limited room for execution stumbles. The EPS surprise factor score ranks in the 99th percentile — the company has a strong track record of beating estimates — but forward EPS dynamics have softened, with the 12-month forward year-on-year estimate in negative territory and both 30- and 90-day EPS momentum factors below 40.
With Q2 results scheduled for July 30, the next test is whether MLM can convert its pricing and volume momentum into another earnings beat — and whether the rebuilding short book proves prescient or gets caught leaning the wrong way into a strong print.
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