EchoStar Corporation enters the week with a striking contradiction: the stock is down 15% in five sessions, yet shorts are quietly covering rather than pressing the bet.
Short interest has declined meaningfully since Monday. It fell from roughly 43.2 million shares to 39.8 million by Thursday — a drop of nearly 4% across the week. As a percentage of the free float, short interest now runs at 25.4%, down from a six-month high near 31.9% reported in the previous note. That retreat in positioning is the key story this week. Bears who drove the stock from its May peak of ~$141 have been reducing exposure into the selloff rather than adding. The borrow market reinforces that read: availability has loosened dramatically, jumping more than 158% over the week to 44.3% — still tight relative to the 52-week average but a sharp reversal from the near-fully-used 7.5% reading seen on June 10. Cost to borrow has also eased, falling 22% on the week to 0.88%, among its lowest levels of the past month. The ORTEX short score, while still elevated at 72.5, has been declining steadily from a recent peak of 75.9 — a week-long drift that aligns with the short covering narrative. Options traders, meanwhile, are leaning decidedly bullish: the put/call ratio is running at 0.37, well below its 20-day average and near the lower end of its 52-week range. That combination — covering shorts, easing borrow, and call-heavy options flow — points to a market leaning on recovery rather than further downside, even as the price continues to fall.
The Street picture is mixed, and the most recent analyst data (from mid-May, now approximately a month old) should be read with some caution as a real-time signal. TD Cowen raised its target to $155 in May, and Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy with a $131 target. UBS and Citi both hold Neutral ratings with targets in the $121–$127 range. The consensus mean sits at $137.60, roughly 26% above Thursday's close of $109.17 — a gap that has opened up sharply as the stock has retreated. Factor scores tell a more sobering story: EPS momentum ranks in the bottom decile on both 30-day and 90-day horizons, and the EV/EBIT score sits at just the 2nd percentile. The short score rank of 5 confirms that, relative to the broader universe, bears remain heavily engaged with this name despite their recent trimming. Dividends score relatively well at the 73rd percentile, though that's a secondary consideration for a stock trading at negative earnings per share.
The ownership structure adds an important lens. Chairman Charles Ergen holds roughly 26% of shares directly, with the Ergen Family Trust holding another 24%. Together, that concentrated insider ownership limits the effective free float and amplifies the impact of short interest changes. Ergen's direct holding increased by 1.2 million shares in the latest reported period — a modest addition but one that runs counter to the broader insider selling trend. The CLO sold roughly $1.3 million worth of stock in early June, and a divisional CEO liquidated more than $5.4 million on June 5 at prices around $121. With the stock now at $109, those June sales look well-timed. The pattern of management selling into strength — a feature of the past several months — is worth tracking as August 7 earnings approach.
After its last three results, SATS moved less than 2% in the first session but then drifted lower over the subsequent five days in two of the three cases. The five-day moves were -8.1%, +7.3%, and -4.9%, suggesting limited directional predictability but a modest tilt toward weakness in the days following results. Whether the spectrum-for-SpaceX-stake reframing — the key narrative shift flagged in the June 15 note — is enough to shift that pattern into a more sustained recovery is the question the next print will have to answer.
The week to watch is the one around August 7: how management characterises spectrum monetisation progress, whether the SpaceX stake is formalised on the balance sheet, and whether short covering continues as a structural trend or reverses if the fundamental case remains challenged.
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