NVIDIA enters the final three days before its June 24 earnings print in a state that has defined the past month: fundamentals pointing one way, the stock moving another.
The price action has been a grind. After a brief recovery to around $212 on triple-witching day, the stock faded back and now trades near $135 on the Argentine-listed instrument — though the more relevant context comes from the prior MI articles, which tracked the US-listed share around $207–$212 through mid-June. The month-over-month loss remains roughly 1–5%, a persistent drag that neither bulls nor bears have resolved with conviction. There is no dramatic positioning story here. Short interest holds near 1.2% of the free float — negligible, essentially unchanged for months. Borrow costs remain close to zero. Availability is effectively unlimited. The lending market is not the story.
The bull case rests on a quality picture that is genuinely hard to argue with. The ORTEX composite score remains near its six-month high, driven by metrics that define the upper tier of the semiconductor universe: a Piotroski F-score of 8, return on assets above 57%, and a five-year EBIT CAGR approaching 94%. EPS momentum ranks in the 90th percentile over the past 30 days. The analyst recommendation differential sits in the 99th percentile — meaning NVIDIA's buy-to-sell ratio is nearly unmatched across the entire covered universe. The bear case is not a fundamental one. It is a positioning and valuation question: after a multi-year run that made NVIDIA one of the most widely held names on the planet, with BlackRock owning nearly 8% of shares and Fidelity adding over 19 million shares recently, the stock needs each print to justify its place at the top of every institutional portfolio. Past results have not made that easy. The two most recent prints both produced negative one-day reactions — down roughly 1% and down 3.3% respectively — with five-day drawdowns of 4–5% in each case.
The ownership picture reinforces how crowded the long side already is. CEO Jensen Huang holds 3.6% of the company outright. The top fifteen institutional holders alone account for more than a third of shares outstanding. When everyone who wants to own NVIDIA already does, the earnings bar becomes structural rather than just numerical.
The June 24 print is therefore less a test of whether NVIDIA is a great company — that is settled — and more a test of whether management's guidance for the next quarter can reset the rally, fade, rally, fade pattern that has defined the stock since May.
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