HMC reports its June quarter on Friday, June 26, entering the print with short sellers pulling back and borrow conditions the loosest they have been in months.
The clearest shift in positioning is the sharp unwind of short interest over the past two weeks. After holding near 3.2 million shares borrowed through late May and early June, estimated short interest dropped to roughly 2.1 million shares around June 9 and has stayed at that lower level since. That retreat coincides with a meaningful loosening in the borrow market: availability has climbed to roughly 495% — meaning there are nearly five shares available to lend for every one already borrowed. That is a dramatic reversal from mid-May, when availability briefly touched its 52-week low near 0.6%. Cost to borrow has also eased back to under 1%, well off the intra-month spike above 1.6% seen on June 16. The ORTEX short score has moved in the same direction, pulling back to 36 from above 40 earlier in the month — a moderate reading that ranks in the 84th percentile on the short score factor, reflecting an above-average but not extreme short-side posture. Options positioning adds little to the bear case: the put/call ratio of 1.10 is essentially in line with its 20-day average, with a z-score near zero, suggesting no unusual hedging demand ahead of the release.
The bull case rests on a strong recent earnings beat. At the last print in May, HMC delivered a 28% year-over-year surge in operating profit, and the stock responded — jumping more than 7% on the day and holding most of those gains over the following week. That is the only recent earnings reaction data available, and it reflects a market that rewarded Honda generously for the upside surprise. Bears, to the extent they remain, point to Honda's persistent underperformance relative to Toyota and Stellantis on a year-to-date basis and a weak momentum profile — the stock has recovered around 4% over the past month but remains down nearly 3% on the week, closing at $26.26. The valuation is not demanding: a price-to-book below 0.53 and an EV/EBITDA near 12.5 suggest the ADR is not priced for perfection, though both multiples have compressed modestly over the past month.
Institutional ownership is dominated by index-heavy holders — BlackRock holds nearly 8.75% and Nomura Asset Management close to 7% — with JPMorgan notably trimming its position by over 8 million shares in the most recent reported quarter. The only meaningful analyst action within a relevant timeframe was Macquarie's downgrade to Neutral in June 2025; all other visible analyst data is too dated to draw conclusions from.
The June 26 print will test whether Honda can back up May's operating profit surge with evidence of durable margin improvement — and whether the stock can finally close the performance gap with its global peers.
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