Roth Capital upgrades PR as borrow costs climb

Permian Resources Corporation got a fresh vote of confidence this morning. Roth Capital's Leo Mariani upgraded the stock to Buy, lifting his target to $23. That's a notable reversal — Mariani had downgraded the same stock to Neutral on April 8.

The upgrade arrives against a complicated backdrop. Short interest has pulled back from its June 16 spike but borrow costs have continued rising. The lending data and options positioning have shifted since the June 17 note. Here's what's changed.

Analyst Turns Bullish — Again

Mariani's flip back to Buy is the freshest signal. Raymond James maintained its Strong Buy on June 17 but trimmed its target from $29 to $26, citing price pressure. The mean analyst target across the coverage group sits at $25.79 — versus a current price of $18.43. That's a 40% implied upside. The bull case hinges on oil staying above $70 and the New Mexico acquisition delivering synergies.

Short Interest Pulls Back From Peak

The June 16 spike — when shorts briefly reached a 52-week high before partially unwinding — has largely reversed. Short interest now stands at 2.9% of free float, down from the 4.3% peak. That's still up 16% over the past month. The borrow market remains extremely loose: availability sits at 6,921% — meaning there are roughly 69 shares available to borrow for every one currently out on loan. There is no squeeze pressure here.

Borrow Costs Grind Higher Anyway

Despite the loose lending pool, cost to borrow has risen 52% over the past week to 0.57%. That's a notable move for a stock with this much availability. It suggests incremental demand for borrows is being priced in even as the absolute level remains low. The direction is worth watching — cost to borrow is up 46% over the past month too.

Options Defensiveness Has Eased

The put-call ratio peaked at 0.3556 on June 16 — 4.3 standard deviations above the 20-day mean. It has since fallen back to 0.3338, still above the 0.314 average but no longer at an extreme. Options traders are less defensive than they were five days ago.

What to Watch

Earnings are scheduled for August 3. The prior three prints all produced negative one-day moves, ranging from -5.8% to -10.4%. The Roth upgrade provides a near-term bullish counterweight. But rising borrow costs and a stock down 12% over the past month suggest the market remains skeptical.

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• Price: $18.43 (–4.3% past week, –11.9% past month)
• SI % of free float: 2.9% (down from 4.3% peak on June 16)
• Cost to borrow: 0.57%, +52% week-on-week
• Availability: 6,921% — lending market very loose
• PCR: 0.3338 vs. 0.314 20-day mean (z-score: 1.35)
• Mean analyst target: $25.79 — 40% above current price
• Roth Capital: Upgraded to Buy, $23 target (today)
• Next earnings: August 3, 2026