AST SpaceMobile has now spent three consecutive weeks in a deteriorating pattern — the stock closed at $80.66 on Thursday, down 17% on the week and nearly 40% below the $133 peak it touched in late May, with short sellers continuing to press their advantage.
Short interest has extended its climb to 21.2% of the free float — a fresh cycle high and up from 20.9% flagged in the June 17 note. That is a 7.9% rise in shares short over five sessions, continuing the re-engagement first flagged after the post-earnings loosening reversed. Borrow availability has tightened further too: the ratio of available-to-borrowed shares has dropped to 36.4%, down from 43% last week. That means for every three shares already out on loan, fewer than two remain available to borrow — the tightest lending conditions since late May. The direction of travel is consistent: each week, a new share of the lending pool gets absorbed. Yet the cost to borrow remains anchored at just 0.76%, barely moving despite the tightening availability. No mechanical squeeze pressure has materialised, and with the ORTEX short score sitting at 69.5 — holding near recent highs but not spiking — this looks like systematic accumulation of a bearish position rather than a panic event.
Options positioning offers little counterweight to the short-side pressure. The put/call ratio of 0.445 sits marginally above its 20-day average of 0.434, a z-score of 0.41 — essentially neutral. Call buyers have not stepped in to defend the stock, and the PCR remains well below the 52-week high of 0.70, meaning options traders are not hedging into this decline in any material way. The clearest read from derivatives is absence of conviction on either side. That puts the weight of the directional signal squarely on the short interest trend.
The Street has grown steadily less constructive. The most recent action of note came from Deutsche Bank, which downgraded to Hold and trimmed its target to $106 on May 29 — when the stock was still trading around $113. That call looks well-timed now. UBS sits at Neutral with an $80 target, essentially where the stock trades. Barclays carries an Underweight with a $65 target. The mean analyst target of $81.47 implies virtually no upside from current levels — a marked compression from the consensus target distribution earlier in the year. The bull case rests on AST's IP moat, its direct-to-device 5G positioning, and the MNO partnership pipeline. Bears point to capital intensity, persistent losses, SpaceX's head start, and third-party launch dependency — and right now, the data is more consistent with the bear narrative holding sway.
The insider picture reinforces caution. The CFO, CTO, CEO, COO, and President all sold shares between late May and mid-June, collectively generating over $18 million in proceeds across a handful of transactions. These were spread across a price range of $90–$127, meaning insiders were selling into the rally and continuing through the decline. Net insider activity over the past 90 days shows $310 million in net sales value — an unusually high figure that reflects pre-scheduled plans as well as discretionary activity, but the sheer breadth of executive participation is notable. Among the closest correlated peers, TSAT fell 9% on the week and IRDM dropped 10.7%, suggesting sector-level pressure rather than ASTS-specific idiosyncratic selling — but ASTS continues to underperform even this weak peer group.
The next scheduled earnings event is August 11. With short interest at a cycle high, availability tightening incrementally each week, and analyst consensus clustered around or below current price, the period between now and that print will be worth watching for any change in the borrow market trajectory or an unexpected operational update that could shift the balance.
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AST SpaceMobile trades at $82.41 after a brutal 48 hours — the stock fell 15.5% on June 12 alone following its earnings release, extending a week-long decline of 12% and leaving it more than 38% below the $133 peak…
AST SpaceMobile closes the week at $88.71 — down 25% in five sessions and now more than 33% below the $133 peak from late May — with Thursday's earnings call arriving against a backdrop of rising short interest,…
