Four days ago, MFG availability briefly recovered to 22%. It has since collapsed back to just 7.3%. The borrow market is tightening again, and this time cost to borrow is moving with it.
Cost to borrow hit 1.68% on June 22. That is up 51% in one week. A month ago it was 1.19%. The direction has been consistently upward since late May, with the rate now at its highest point in the 30-day window.
This matters because the June 19 article noted CTB as a secondary concern — availability was the headline. Now both are flashing simultaneously. A rising CTB alongside sub-10% availability signals that lenders are repricing scarce supply, not just running out of it.
The prior article documented the June 15 low of 2.4%. Availability recovered to 19.7% on June 18 before dropping sharply again. As of June 22 it sits at 7.3% — fewer than one share available for every 13 already borrowed.
The pattern has repeated twice in eight days. Each dip toward zero has been followed by a partial recovery, then another leg lower. Short interest drives this: borrowed shares rose to 6.77 million on June 22, up 8.7% over the past week. Demand for borrows is outpacing any new supply entering the pool.
The put-call ratio that triggered the original options pulse — 2.52 standard deviations above mean on June 19 — has since normalised. The June 22 PCR reads 0.71, essentially in line with the 20-day mean of 0.72. The z-score is -0.17. Options traders are no longer adding puts at an elevated pace. That signal has faded.
Among top holders, Nomura Asset Management added 9.8 million shares in its most recent filing. Capital Research added 4.6 million. BlackRock added a modest 242,000. No major holder reported a reduction. That institutional accumulation sits in contrast to the growing short book — a divergence worth watching as earnings approach on July 30.
What to watch: Whether availability holds above the 2.4% June 15 floor, and whether CTB continues its ascent toward 2%+ in advance of the July earnings date.
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