SNX Bulls Still in Charge, But Street Is Now Chasing the Stock

TD SYNNEX reports fiscal Q2 results on June 25 with Morgan Stanley delivering the sharpest pre-print analyst move in months — and the stock sitting above the consensus mean target for the second week running.

On Tuesday, Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring raised his price target from $271 to $341, maintaining Overweight, the most aggressive single revision in the current cycle. That follows Goldman Sachs lifting to $300 on June 12 and RBC Capital moving to $315 on June 10. Every major desk has moved higher in the past two weeks. The pattern is consistent: the Street is upgrading targets after the stock has already moved, not ahead of it. SNX closed at $283.26, now sitting comfortably above the consensus mean of $276, which means the market has already priced past the average analyst's expectations. Morgan Stanley's $341 target is the new high-water mark to watch.

The bull case rests on AI infrastructure momentum and a projected 22% jump in adjusted EBITDA for the quarter. Bears point to a sluggish PC end-market, revenue growth that trails distribution peers, and macro exposure that could crimp margins if enterprise IT spending softens. Valuation has re-rated sharply: the trailing P/E has expanded by more than two turns over the past month to nearly 15.8x, and the price-to-book has risen 0.36 over the same period. The stock is up 19% in a month. That gap between price and consensus — and the speed of the re-rating — is precisely what makes the print consequential.

Options positioning has actually turned more bullish since the previous article flagged mild hedging. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.27, well below its 20-day average of 0.32 and at its lowest level in weeks. That is a negative reading on the z-score basis — call buyers are dominant, not hedgers. The borrow market remains completely disengaged: availability is extraordinarily loose at roughly 4,900% of short interest outstanding, and the cost to borrow is running at just 0.40%. Short interest ticked up about 11% over the week to 1.9% of the free float, but at that level it is background noise rather than a meaningful overhang.

The March earnings print is a relevant data point: SNX jumped 16% in a single session and extended to 22% over five days after that release, a reaction that helped fuel the current rally. Peers have been softer this week — NSIT fell 4.5% and CNXN dropped nearly 5% — making SNX's relative resilience notable. The June 25 print is therefore a test of whether the AI distribution thesis can deliver numbers that justify a stock already trading above its consensus target and priced for a repeat of the March beat.